Ok, here comes the thrilling review of the AFC South. This is not the division it once was but as it was for many years, there is one clear-cut leader in this division. So without further ado.
AFC SOUTH
1. Houston Texans. The Texans are far and away the clear choice for winning this division and there is no reason to believe that they won't head to a division crown for a consecuttive season. The Texans could very well be the AFC represenative in the Super Bowl (perhaps a Super Bowl preview in Week 6 when the Packers come to Houston). Matt Schaub is a quarterback who has a lot to prove. When healthy he puts up dominant numbers and puts his team in position to when games. He is coming off a season-ending foot injury and had to watch as third-string rookie T.J. Yates led them to the division title and their first ever playoff win. Schaub, however, knows how to run this offense and won't make the mistakes that Yates did in their playoff loss to Baltimore. Schaub knows that he has a chance to take this team to the Super Bowl and that has to be his primary goal. One thing that makes his life easier is running back Arian Foster. Foster still has a chip on his shoulder for being undrafted out of college and plays like it. He runs hard and through people and has exceptional receiving skills. He is quite possibly the most complete back in the NFL right now. The texans also have the luxury of the very capable Ben Tate backing up Foster. Tate is good enough to start on most teams and one would have to assume will get that chance when his contract comes up. Schaub's main weapon in the passing game is Andre Johnson. Johnson was injured most of last year, but did come back strong in the post-season, which gives texans fans hope that Johnson will return to form this season. When healthy, Johnson is a top 5 receiver in the league. What makes Johnson great is that like this year he doesn't have a complimentary receiver opposite of him, yet he still produces even though he is the focus of the secondary. Owen Daniels is a capable tight end, he would be great, but is injury-prone and this year the Texans don't have a proven back-up at the position. The offensive line works very well with the Texans zone-blocking scheme and give holes for Foster to run through. The line, however, got weaker with tackle Eric Winston leaving in free agency, so the Texans have a hole to fill there. The defense last year became an elite defense under defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. However, they will be missing two big components. OLB Mario Williams and ILB DeMeco Ryans left the team in free agency, although these two players were never perfect fits for the new 3-4 defense that was put in. Last year's 1st round pick J.J. Watt showed that he is ready for the big time and will be expected to do more this year. Watt has a high motor and won't quit on a play. He should end up with double digit sacks this year. The linebackers are led by ILB Brian Cushing. Cushing is a former Defensive Rookie of the Year and plays very physical and is a fiery leader. Veteran Bradie James will be asked to replace DeMeco Ryans. James played in this scheme in Dallas with Wade Phillips, so he comes in understanding what will be asked of him in the system. The secondary unit is young but very skilled. Jonathon Joseph came on last year and became a top-flight corner, earning a Pro Bowl berth. Kareem Jackson needs to continue improving opposite of Joseph. There is no reason that this defense won't once again finish in the Top 5 NFL defenses this year. The Texans should finish 13-3 and sweep the divison as well as they easily win the AFC South title this year.
2. Tennessee Titans. The Titans will begin the jake Locker era this year. Locker showed a lot of promise last season when he had to step in for injured Matt Hasselbeck. Locker has a very strong arm and is very mobile, his weaknesses are his accuracy and sometimes his decision making. Locker will make some amazing plays but he will also make some mistakes, which will most likely cost the Titans a shot at the post-season. Chris Johnson is going to have to take a lot of pressure of Locker. Johnson is a big-play threat every time he touches the ball; there are few people in the world who can match his speed let alone in the NFL. Defenses when they get the chance need to put a hit on him, in order to try to slow him down over the course of the game, if not they will be looking at the back of #28's jersey a lot. Nate Washington came on strong when Kenny Britt went down early and is going to have to continue his effort from last season, with the likelihood of Britt missing some games. Britt can be one of the best in the league, but needs to stop being distracted by off the field issues. Rookie Kendall Wright is going to get a chance to play early and is going to have to show that he was worthy of a 1st round pick and not just a one year wonder in college. Jared Cook at tight end made some big plays last year and finally showed the promise of his athletic ability, if he continues to progress he could be a big playmaker for Locker. The offensive line has veteran leadership at the tackle position with Michael Roos and David Stewart, both are very good at their position but will never get the elite attention. The defense is a unit that has potential, because of their youth. Derrick Morgan and Kameron Wimbley are going to have to be great this year if this defense is going to succeed. They will both have to get plenty of pressure on the quarterback as well as play tough in the running game. Outside of veteran Will Witherspoon, the linebacking unit is unproven and will have to play over their heads to help the team win. The secondary unit is adequate with FS Michael Griffin being the star of the group, but this unit will get tested and I'm not certain they will hold up all season (they play the Texans twice, the Lions, Packers,and Patroits). All said the Titans will finish 7-9 this year but the future will be on the upswing.
3. Indianapolis Colts. The Colts had a little bit of luck last year in having Peyton Manning not play and "earn" the right to draft Andrew Luck, the most obvious successor to Peyton Manning if there ever was one. Without a doubt Luck will start on opening day. It is his team and he has to live up to the potential he showed in college. Luck can make every throw and has the intelligence to grasp the offense and make proper reads (benefits of being coached in college by a former NFL quarterback). Donald Brown is going to get the chance to be the starter at running back. Brown has yet to live up to his potential coming out of college, but he has yet to be the feature back, so this is his chance to prove something. Reggie Wayne is still a top-notch receiver and will have to help mentor a group of receiver that are young and inexperienced. He won't have as much help from Austin Collie, who suffered another concussion. Collie is a very good route runner and sure handed, but is very injury-prone, especially with concussions. Luck has the benefit of having his old college tight end joining him. Coby Fleener was considered the best tight end in this draft, but is going to have to work on his blocking at this level. The offensive line has been revamped; they are no longer the great pass blockers who struggled in the running game. This unit is more apt for both styles of play, but it is new unit so it will take some time to learn to work together. The defense has also changed going from an undersized 4-3 that was built for speed, to a 3-4 scheme. This can be a scary idea for some teams playing the Colts, because this move in scheme will make even bigger monsters out of Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. These two were Hell on wheels playing undersized defensive ends, now they will pose even bigger mismatches playing outside linebackers. Early prediction, I believe that Freeney will make a run at the season record for sacks, now that he is playing the rush linebacker position in a 3-4. The Colts brought in Cory Redding from Baltimore to help shore up the D-Line in this transition; Redding has played in this scheme so he will help mentor some of the players in the transition. The safeties in Bethea and Zbikowski are going to have to help the corners out this year. The corner position is weak for the Colts, although they will look a lot better if Freeney and Mathis can cause a lot of disruption in the passing game. This team is going to come down to how well Luck adjusts to the NFL and the pressure of replacing a legend. He should win more games than Manning did in his rookie year, but he will not lead the Colts back to the playoffs yet. The Colts will finish this season at 6-10 with signs of hope for the future of Andrew Luck.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars. Oh boy, is this team going to struggle this year. It never helps that last year's rushing champion may not even play. I'd be more on MJD's side, if this was the final year of his contract and wasn't scheduled to make $4.5 million. You were going to get paid down the line, now you are involved in a pissing contest with a new owner who doesn't show any signs of backing down. It's a shame, because MJD is a great runner and can carry that team, but now this team is going to be in complete disarray. This whole scenario does nothing to help the development of Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert looked awful last season as a rookie. He looked like he was lost and worse than that he looked scared in the pocket. He has a lot to prove to his teammates this year. The team at least went out and got wide receivers. They got Laurent Robinson in free agency. Robinson came off a career year in Dallas last season and will now have the chance to shine (if Gabbert can get him the ball). They also drafted Justin Blackmon early in the first round. Blackmon was considered to be the best wide receiver in this year's draft class. It looks like Rashard Jennings is going to get the chance to start at running back, if this situation with MJD is not resolved. Jennings is more of a speed back and won't punish a defense like Jones-Drew does. The benefit for Jennings is that the offensive line is better suited as run blockers; they can struggle in pass protection. The offense will go as well as Gabbert can grasp it and perform, if not Chad Henne will get another shot as a starter. the defensive unit was very strong last year. They kept the Jaguars in a lot of games that they honestly shouldn't have been in. The defensive line's strength is with DTs Terrence Knighton and Tyson Alualu. They will hold up the middle and allow MLB Paul Posluszney to be a tackling machine and the run-stopper he has always been. The Jaguars will have to blitz their OLB's if they want to get pressure on the quarterback, but the secondary is above average and gives them the luxury of doing this. Rashean Mathis and Derek Cox are very good corners and can play both man and zone based coverages. Mathis is creeping up in age but is still very effective and provides some leadership for the secondary. There will not be much to cheer for in Jacksonville this year as they will struggle. They will be playing for Matt Barkley as they will finish 2-14 (they may compete with the Lions as a team that finishes 0-16, they do have a brutal schedule) and the defense may score more touchdowns than the offense.
That's it for today. I'll be away for a few, the NFC South breakdown should be up either Sunday or Monday. Thanks to all the readers so far.
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