The NFC South is an interesting division. There was a weird run for a few years back that the team who finished in first had the honor of finishing last the previous season. This division may be the most democratic of all the divisions, because they like to let everyone get a feel of what it's like to be on top (moreso than other divisions). This is one of only three divisions where every team has won the crown at least once in the past 10 years (AFC and NFC West have also let this happen). Now, let's get to the breakdown.
NFC SOUTH
1. Atlanta Falcons. With all the troubles with the New Orleans Saints (I'll get to that shortly) this will be the year the Falcons take over the divison crown. They have a bitter taste in their mouth after getting embarrassed by the Giants in the playoffs; the offense didn't score and Hakeem Nicks ran through the defense like a hot knife going through butter. Matt Ryan looks like he is ready to step up into the elite quarterback club. He definitely has the weapons. Roddy White has proven to be one of the most consistent receivers in the league and is a target the Ryan knows he can get the ball to in a big situation and White will make the play. White is as sure handed of a receiver as there is in the game, rarely dropping a pass and will run the tough routes over the middle. Opposite of White is Julio Jones. Jones showed flashes as a rookie of why the Falcons gave up so many picks last year to move up in the draft to get him. He is a legitimate deep threat who greatly benefits from having White on the field with him. The ageless wonder Tony Gonzalez is still a top tier tight end, even nowin the twilight of his career. Gonzalez may not have the speed he once had, but he still finds a way to get open. He does get a lot of room to operate with White and Jones on the field getting attention from the safeties and all he needs is an inch of room to work with and he will be open and give Ryan a big target in the middle of the field. Running back Michael Turner is starting to get old but he is still a durable back who can plow through defenders. Although do not be surprised if second year running back Jacquizz Rodgers starts to see plenty of action, if for no other reason to save Turner's legs for a post-season push. when they acquired Asante Samuel from the Eagles and only had to give up a sixth round draft pick, but again is also being payed a lot of money. They are going to have to make big plays in order for the Falcons to accomplish their Super Bowl dreams. The Falcons will benefit from an easy schedule at the start of the year and take the division title with a 12-4 record.The offensive line was built to be run-blocking unit, but they do a better than average job in protecting their quarterback as well. Although the tackles can be vulnerable if left in space against a speed rusher, but for the most part the Falcons do a good job in their protection schemes. On the defensive side of the ball, the Falcons are still praying for another good season out of their veteran defensive end John Abraham. Abraham is definitely in the twilight of his career, but has the skills to still be highly productive. Opposite of him is Ray Edwards will have to produce more than he did last year, now that he should be fully adjusted to the system. The linebacking group got weakened when the Falcons let Curtis Lofton go in free agency. Sean Witherspoon is a very athletic player, but he is still inexperienced and needs to show why he was a first round pick three years ago. The secondary is good, but you would think they would be great for the money that the falcons have shelled out in this area. Brent Grimes got franchised in the off-season making him drastically over-paid in my opinion. I don't believe that he is a top 5 cornerback, but for this year he will get paid top 5 money. The Falcons did make a good trade in getting Assante Samuel away from the Eagles. The Falcons will win the division with a 12-4 record.
2. New Orleans Saints. This team would normally be the front runners for the division title, but after the fallout from the bounty program and all the suspensions the team will have, they are no longer the team to beat in the division. The coaching problem will cost them in the early season, until Joe Vitt will be able to come back and run the team after week 6, but this will cause a lot of chaos. Quarterback Drew Brees will do his best to keep this team in the playoff race, but even as great as he is, this is too tall of a task to ask. Brees has done nothing since his arrival in New Orleans, except arguably be the best quarterback in the game over that time. His passing numbers are staggering every year and should be battling to break his own record from last season. The Saints running game is very effective even though they use many different backs. Darren Sproles showed how versatile he is last year and what a weapon he can be, when used properly. He was a threat in the running game, passing game and returning kicks, as no one in the history of the NFL had more all-purpose yards than Sproles did for one season. Pierre Thomas provides a little power to the running game as he has a habit of getting the tough yards. Mark Ingram has been dealing with injuries, so his potential has not been fully seen. The passing game is what moves the Saints offense. Former seventh round pick Marques Colston has been one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL since he was drafted, while he is not the burner of the bunch; he is the one who will get open and is sure-handed enough to make the catch. Devery Henderson and Lnace Moore are going to have to step up their game this year in the abscence of Robert Meachem. One of these 2 are going to have to provide a solid deep threat for Brees, to open up the middle for Jimmy Graham. Graham has developed into one of the best tight ends in the game. He is a pure receiving tight end as he is not asked to do much in-line blocking and is often lined up as a wide receiver. He was a dominant force for the offense all season long. The offense line as a whole could very well be the best in the game. They don't allow the quarterback to be hit very often let alone get sacked. They did lose guard Carl Nicks, but replaced him with Ben Grubbs, which is no drop off at all. The tackles of Bushrod and Strief hold up well against both speed and power rushers, which again help keep Brees clean all game. The defense on paper looks very solid, but with the change in the defense coordinator, will they be as good as they appear to be. The defensive line is very good. Although they will have to deal with the four game suspension of defensive end Will Smith, for his alleged role in the bounty program. Smith and Cameron Jordan are a good tandem of defensive ends, who can both play the run and get after the quarterback. Defensive tackles Broderick Bunkley and Sedrick Ellis plug up the middle as good as any pair of defensive tackles in the league. Middle linebacker Curtis Lofton, coming over from Atlanta, is going to have to fill the shoes of suspended Jonathon Vilma. Lofton is going to have to call the defense on the field as well as make some big plays. The corners of Patrick Robertson and Jabari Greer are solid corners who have the capability of making a big play for the defense. Safeties Malcolm Jenkins and Roman Harper are also as solid as can be, Jenkins is more of the playmaker, while Harper is the more physical player. Harper is more likely to come on blitzes and force fumbles in that way. Harper can be an instigator and sometimes crosses the line, but yet he does a good job of getting the other player to draw the personal foul penalty and he stays clean. With all the chaos that this team will face, I see them finishing 9-7 and missing the palyoffs for the first time in a few years.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay was just a beautiful disaster last season. They had so much potential shown from the previous year, that there was some hope for the team to make a playoff run. The quarterback play of Josh Freeman was horrible last year. He was inconsistent and had way too many turnovers. He is going to have to limit the turnover this year. The running game got boosted with the drafting of Doug Martin. He is expected to and will win the starting job and be the guy to carry the load and take some pressure of Freeman. They also got a legitimate number 1 receiver when they picked up Vincent Jackson from San Diego in free agency. Jackson will give Freeman a target all over the field as jackson will run al routes, but does excel in the deep game. Jackson's arrival will allow Mike Williams to develop into a quality second receiver and won't have to be the main guy. He can use his size to make plays over the middle and gain first downs for the team. Dallas Clark appears to be finishing up his career in a new home. Clark was an exceptional tight end for the Colts for many years, now he has the opportunity to step outside of that team's legacy and help make a young quarterback better. The offensive line had the potential to be great with the addition of carl Nicks, but the season-ending injury to opposite guard Davin Joseph leaves the offensive line with a big hole. Tackles Donald Penn and Jeremy Trueblood are very solid, but have to work on their pass protection to protect their young quarterback. The defensive unit is filled with a lot of youth and it's time for this youth to hit their potential. This defense has the potential to be one of the most hell-raising groups because they have speed everywhere. It starts up front. Former 3rd overall pick Gerald McCoy has got to stay healthy and two he has to live up to his potential. Another bad season from McCoy and he is going to be considered a bust, at the time of the draft there were people arguing that he was better than Ndamkong Suh, well he's proven those anaylsts wrong. Adrian Clayborn showed a lot of promise as a rookie and has to continue to play well and make plays on the quarterback. The linebackers are very young, but have the potential to be great. Rookie Lavonte David has a chance to be Defensive Rookie of the Year if he can continue to be the tackle machine he was in college. David has amazing insticts and always appears to be in on the play. The secondary is interesting. Aqib Talib has been up and down his entire career and Eric Wright on the other side was burned a lot last year. Veteran Ronde Barber came back for one last year and is expected to move to strong safety to help the team in an area of weakness. Rookie Mark Barron is also expected to make plays and be the front runner for DROY. The future looks brighter than it did last year for the Bucs, but they are not a playoff team yet, but will surprise teams and finish the season with a 7-9 record.
4. Carolina Panthers. Year two of the Cam Newton era begins. newton shocked everyone last year as he came out the gate with back-to-back 400 yard passing games, but he definitely hit the rookie wall near the end of the season as his numbers went down drastically. The question is if Newton will be interested in improving his game or is he going to be distracted by the commercials he's been doing. You know defensive coordinators have been studying him since the season ended. Newton is extremely dangerous as a running quarterback because of his speed and size. He can blow by you and he can run people over. The Panthers are blessed with two solid running backs in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart. The problem is they both can never stay healthy, but they usually are never hurt at the same time, so one is good to go when the other is down, but they work best in a tandem together, becasuse Williams is the speed guy and Stewart is the power guy. Wide receiver Steve Smith was re-energized last year with Newton and will need to continue to have to be the tough receiver he is. He may be the smallest receiver in the league but he doesn't play like it as he runs hard over the middle. The offensive line outside of center Ryan Kahil and tackle Jordan Gross is not the best of units and that will lead to Cam not having time to throw and putting the ball down to run, which can be scary for an opposing defense, unless they worry more about containing him then rushing him. The defense is not as strong as it was in John Fox days. The strength being the linebackers with Jon Beason and rookie Luke Kuechly. Kuechly has the chance to be a great MLB for the next ten years. He has the instincts and the intelligence to play the position. Beason would be better suited moving back to the outside, to take advantage of his athleticism. Moving Beason to the outside gives him less traffic to fight through and he can make plays. Defensive end Charles Johnson, who the Panthers thought was good enough to replace Julius Peppers, is overpaid for his production levels. He had one double digit sack season and got paid a big contract (you know how many guys in the league have one double digit sack season but aren't making a $12M a year average contract). He has to play better than he showed last year, in order for the team to get better. The back 4 are average players, none of whom stand out on this team or any other for that matter. The Panthers have to address the defense and wide receiver positions in future drafts to keep this team progressing. This team has a tough schedule right out the gate with the Saints, Giants and Falcons in their first 4 weeks and will never recover throughout the year as the Pnathers don't have enough talent on the field and will suffer a worse record under year two of Cam Newton's era and finish 4-12.
Ok, I know it was a day late, but life gets in the way sometimes. So, I know that everyone is dying for it, here it finally is. Tomorrow, I may get both AFC and NFC West reviews in, just because there isn't a lot to talk about with some of those teams. Til next time, thanks to all who have peered in and read my work.
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
Friday, August 24, 2012
Shooting in New York City
Ok, time to write something off the subject of sports. This morning there was a shooting in New York City by the Empire State Building. Thankfully, the shooter was shot and killed by police, saving taxpayers money on a trial and life imprisionment. The shooter apparently shot a co-worker over a dispute. I hope it was a dispute of great importance, cause guess what buddy, now you're dead. what could have been so important that you felt the need to shoot and kill someone along with injuring 8 other people and then end up getting your dumbass killed? I'm not going to get into the argument about whether or not we should have the right to carry a gun; that is just an endless debate. I'm going to go another way.
So, you have a dispute with a co-worker; I think most of us can relate to that. Deal with it!! Either swallow your tongue and do your job like most people do on a daily basis, or, and I know this is a completely crazy thought, go have a conversation with the individual about the issue. You are going to get more accomplished by talking the situation out, then going out and killing someone. Best case scenario, you are going to go to jail for the rest of your life by following the course of violence. You apparently wanted to go with the worse scenario for yourself and get yourself killed as well. Now, last I knew having a casual conversation with an individual should not lead to life imprisionment and if you do have this discussion with the individual who is so upsetting you and nothing is accomplished, you can then go to a higher voice in your workplace and voice your grievance. This is the civil and dare I say professional way to handle a situation.
Again, though one has to blame the culture of violence. You see so many images of violence everyway and especially in films, violence is always used as a solution to a problem. "Violence begets violence." The problem with seeing so many images of the gun used as a problem solver is that people eventually believe that it is true. Where are the images of diplomatic conflict resolution? Oh wait, that takes a little longer than the 2.8 seconds it takes for the bullit to leave the chamber and kill someone. Did this individual that you felt compelled to murder, rape your wife? Your children? Now, those are moments I could understand, but if it is just some stupid work dispute, then grow the fuck up and get over it. Everyone has someone they hate that they have to work with, but everyday these people go through their day and pretend to be civil, mostly because right now people are grateful to have a job.
Civility, now that is a concept that seems to be running out in America. Have we really started to lose the ability to communicate with people? Have we lost touch with just basic politeness and courtesy? Why are we so quick in this country to settle a problem with violence? I can't even pretend that I am smart enough to know the answers to these questions. As much as I believe in the rights that the Constitution grants us, we do have a serious and legitimate problem with guns in this country. America has the most deaths per year via the gun, then any country in the world. It used to be that if you had a problem with someone and it escalated to the point of violence, then the worst thing that would happen is you would have a fistfight over it (and a lot of times the men who got into the fight afterwards would have a beer together, because the problem got resolved in their mind). Now, I'd be afraid to get into a fight because I'd be almost certain that the other person is carrying a weapon. To quote the movie Shoot 'Em Up, "There's nothing worse in this world than a pussy with a gun". This is so true, having a gun doesn't make you tough, it just gives you the ability to do something stupid, which you may regret for the rest of your life. My one friend is a trained bodyguard and would much rather go hand-to-hand, if he loses, he loses no big deal, but yes he packs a gun, because he knows that the other person is going to have one. It's also his job, to protect his client and I'm sure he wants to go home alive as well.
We need tougher laws on guns or better education for people who get them. Soon, we all are going to be personally affected by someone who got shot by a stray bullit. Yes, I hope to God I am not one or that I am wrong, but we can not continue to glamorize violence and hope that nothing happens by doing so. I fear that as this country sinks further into a depression, that more people are going to go to extremes because of the desperation of their lives. "Tempt not a desperate man!", Shakespeare once wrote and as unemployment continues to be high and people continue to struggle to make ends meet, one has to fear that a revolution is coming. The unfortunate part of a revolution is that it never starts out as a focused attack, it begins with a series of random acts of violence and unfortunately, people who aren't involved in anything are the ones who take the bullit. Have we gotten too far away from having peaceful lives, where we can live freely with one another, or are we destined to continue to go through this violent path that will ultimately destroy us all in one way or another. I will end with a quote from Dr. Martin Luther King, "Returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars... Hate cannot drive out hate: only love can do that."
So, you have a dispute with a co-worker; I think most of us can relate to that. Deal with it!! Either swallow your tongue and do your job like most people do on a daily basis, or, and I know this is a completely crazy thought, go have a conversation with the individual about the issue. You are going to get more accomplished by talking the situation out, then going out and killing someone. Best case scenario, you are going to go to jail for the rest of your life by following the course of violence. You apparently wanted to go with the worse scenario for yourself and get yourself killed as well. Now, last I knew having a casual conversation with an individual should not lead to life imprisionment and if you do have this discussion with the individual who is so upsetting you and nothing is accomplished, you can then go to a higher voice in your workplace and voice your grievance. This is the civil and dare I say professional way to handle a situation.
Again, though one has to blame the culture of violence. You see so many images of violence everyway and especially in films, violence is always used as a solution to a problem. "Violence begets violence." The problem with seeing so many images of the gun used as a problem solver is that people eventually believe that it is true. Where are the images of diplomatic conflict resolution? Oh wait, that takes a little longer than the 2.8 seconds it takes for the bullit to leave the chamber and kill someone. Did this individual that you felt compelled to murder, rape your wife? Your children? Now, those are moments I could understand, but if it is just some stupid work dispute, then grow the fuck up and get over it. Everyone has someone they hate that they have to work with, but everyday these people go through their day and pretend to be civil, mostly because right now people are grateful to have a job.
Civility, now that is a concept that seems to be running out in America. Have we really started to lose the ability to communicate with people? Have we lost touch with just basic politeness and courtesy? Why are we so quick in this country to settle a problem with violence? I can't even pretend that I am smart enough to know the answers to these questions. As much as I believe in the rights that the Constitution grants us, we do have a serious and legitimate problem with guns in this country. America has the most deaths per year via the gun, then any country in the world. It used to be that if you had a problem with someone and it escalated to the point of violence, then the worst thing that would happen is you would have a fistfight over it (and a lot of times the men who got into the fight afterwards would have a beer together, because the problem got resolved in their mind). Now, I'd be afraid to get into a fight because I'd be almost certain that the other person is carrying a weapon. To quote the movie Shoot 'Em Up, "There's nothing worse in this world than a pussy with a gun". This is so true, having a gun doesn't make you tough, it just gives you the ability to do something stupid, which you may regret for the rest of your life. My one friend is a trained bodyguard and would much rather go hand-to-hand, if he loses, he loses no big deal, but yes he packs a gun, because he knows that the other person is going to have one. It's also his job, to protect his client and I'm sure he wants to go home alive as well.
We need tougher laws on guns or better education for people who get them. Soon, we all are going to be personally affected by someone who got shot by a stray bullit. Yes, I hope to God I am not one or that I am wrong, but we can not continue to glamorize violence and hope that nothing happens by doing so. I fear that as this country sinks further into a depression, that more people are going to go to extremes because of the desperation of their lives. "Tempt not a desperate man!", Shakespeare once wrote and as unemployment continues to be high and people continue to struggle to make ends meet, one has to fear that a revolution is coming. The unfortunate part of a revolution is that it never starts out as a focused attack, it begins with a series of random acts of violence and unfortunately, people who aren't involved in anything are the ones who take the bullit. Have we gotten too far away from having peaceful lives, where we can live freely with one another, or are we destined to continue to go through this violent path that will ultimately destroy us all in one way or another. I will end with a quote from Dr. Martin Luther King, "Returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars... Hate cannot drive out hate: only love can do that."
Thursday, August 23, 2012
Breakdown of the AFC South
Ok, here comes the thrilling review of the AFC South. This is not the division it once was but as it was for many years, there is one clear-cut leader in this division. So without further ado.
AFC SOUTH
1. Houston Texans. The Texans are far and away the clear choice for winning this division and there is no reason to believe that they won't head to a division crown for a consecuttive season. The Texans could very well be the AFC represenative in the Super Bowl (perhaps a Super Bowl preview in Week 6 when the Packers come to Houston). Matt Schaub is a quarterback who has a lot to prove. When healthy he puts up dominant numbers and puts his team in position to when games. He is coming off a season-ending foot injury and had to watch as third-string rookie T.J. Yates led them to the division title and their first ever playoff win. Schaub, however, knows how to run this offense and won't make the mistakes that Yates did in their playoff loss to Baltimore. Schaub knows that he has a chance to take this team to the Super Bowl and that has to be his primary goal. One thing that makes his life easier is running back Arian Foster. Foster still has a chip on his shoulder for being undrafted out of college and plays like it. He runs hard and through people and has exceptional receiving skills. He is quite possibly the most complete back in the NFL right now. The texans also have the luxury of the very capable Ben Tate backing up Foster. Tate is good enough to start on most teams and one would have to assume will get that chance when his contract comes up. Schaub's main weapon in the passing game is Andre Johnson. Johnson was injured most of last year, but did come back strong in the post-season, which gives texans fans hope that Johnson will return to form this season. When healthy, Johnson is a top 5 receiver in the league. What makes Johnson great is that like this year he doesn't have a complimentary receiver opposite of him, yet he still produces even though he is the focus of the secondary. Owen Daniels is a capable tight end, he would be great, but is injury-prone and this year the Texans don't have a proven back-up at the position. The offensive line works very well with the Texans zone-blocking scheme and give holes for Foster to run through. The line, however, got weaker with tackle Eric Winston leaving in free agency, so the Texans have a hole to fill there. The defense last year became an elite defense under defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. However, they will be missing two big components. OLB Mario Williams and ILB DeMeco Ryans left the team in free agency, although these two players were never perfect fits for the new 3-4 defense that was put in. Last year's 1st round pick J.J. Watt showed that he is ready for the big time and will be expected to do more this year. Watt has a high motor and won't quit on a play. He should end up with double digit sacks this year. The linebackers are led by ILB Brian Cushing. Cushing is a former Defensive Rookie of the Year and plays very physical and is a fiery leader. Veteran Bradie James will be asked to replace DeMeco Ryans. James played in this scheme in Dallas with Wade Phillips, so he comes in understanding what will be asked of him in the system. The secondary unit is young but very skilled. Jonathon Joseph came on last year and became a top-flight corner, earning a Pro Bowl berth. Kareem Jackson needs to continue improving opposite of Joseph. There is no reason that this defense won't once again finish in the Top 5 NFL defenses this year. The Texans should finish 13-3 and sweep the divison as well as they easily win the AFC South title this year.
2. Tennessee Titans. The Titans will begin the jake Locker era this year. Locker showed a lot of promise last season when he had to step in for injured Matt Hasselbeck. Locker has a very strong arm and is very mobile, his weaknesses are his accuracy and sometimes his decision making. Locker will make some amazing plays but he will also make some mistakes, which will most likely cost the Titans a shot at the post-season. Chris Johnson is going to have to take a lot of pressure of Locker. Johnson is a big-play threat every time he touches the ball; there are few people in the world who can match his speed let alone in the NFL. Defenses when they get the chance need to put a hit on him, in order to try to slow him down over the course of the game, if not they will be looking at the back of #28's jersey a lot. Nate Washington came on strong when Kenny Britt went down early and is going to have to continue his effort from last season, with the likelihood of Britt missing some games. Britt can be one of the best in the league, but needs to stop being distracted by off the field issues. Rookie Kendall Wright is going to get a chance to play early and is going to have to show that he was worthy of a 1st round pick and not just a one year wonder in college. Jared Cook at tight end made some big plays last year and finally showed the promise of his athletic ability, if he continues to progress he could be a big playmaker for Locker. The offensive line has veteran leadership at the tackle position with Michael Roos and David Stewart, both are very good at their position but will never get the elite attention. The defense is a unit that has potential, because of their youth. Derrick Morgan and Kameron Wimbley are going to have to be great this year if this defense is going to succeed. They will both have to get plenty of pressure on the quarterback as well as play tough in the running game. Outside of veteran Will Witherspoon, the linebacking unit is unproven and will have to play over their heads to help the team win. The secondary unit is adequate with FS Michael Griffin being the star of the group, but this unit will get tested and I'm not certain they will hold up all season (they play the Texans twice, the Lions, Packers,and Patroits). All said the Titans will finish 7-9 this year but the future will be on the upswing.
3. Indianapolis Colts. The Colts had a little bit of luck last year in having Peyton Manning not play and "earn" the right to draft Andrew Luck, the most obvious successor to Peyton Manning if there ever was one. Without a doubt Luck will start on opening day. It is his team and he has to live up to the potential he showed in college. Luck can make every throw and has the intelligence to grasp the offense and make proper reads (benefits of being coached in college by a former NFL quarterback). Donald Brown is going to get the chance to be the starter at running back. Brown has yet to live up to his potential coming out of college, but he has yet to be the feature back, so this is his chance to prove something. Reggie Wayne is still a top-notch receiver and will have to help mentor a group of receiver that are young and inexperienced. He won't have as much help from Austin Collie, who suffered another concussion. Collie is a very good route runner and sure handed, but is very injury-prone, especially with concussions. Luck has the benefit of having his old college tight end joining him. Coby Fleener was considered the best tight end in this draft, but is going to have to work on his blocking at this level. The offensive line has been revamped; they are no longer the great pass blockers who struggled in the running game. This unit is more apt for both styles of play, but it is new unit so it will take some time to learn to work together. The defense has also changed going from an undersized 4-3 that was built for speed, to a 3-4 scheme. This can be a scary idea for some teams playing the Colts, because this move in scheme will make even bigger monsters out of Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. These two were Hell on wheels playing undersized defensive ends, now they will pose even bigger mismatches playing outside linebackers. Early prediction, I believe that Freeney will make a run at the season record for sacks, now that he is playing the rush linebacker position in a 3-4. The Colts brought in Cory Redding from Baltimore to help shore up the D-Line in this transition; Redding has played in this scheme so he will help mentor some of the players in the transition. The safeties in Bethea and Zbikowski are going to have to help the corners out this year. The corner position is weak for the Colts, although they will look a lot better if Freeney and Mathis can cause a lot of disruption in the passing game. This team is going to come down to how well Luck adjusts to the NFL and the pressure of replacing a legend. He should win more games than Manning did in his rookie year, but he will not lead the Colts back to the playoffs yet. The Colts will finish this season at 6-10 with signs of hope for the future of Andrew Luck.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars. Oh boy, is this team going to struggle this year. It never helps that last year's rushing champion may not even play. I'd be more on MJD's side, if this was the final year of his contract and wasn't scheduled to make $4.5 million. You were going to get paid down the line, now you are involved in a pissing contest with a new owner who doesn't show any signs of backing down. It's a shame, because MJD is a great runner and can carry that team, but now this team is going to be in complete disarray. This whole scenario does nothing to help the development of Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert looked awful last season as a rookie. He looked like he was lost and worse than that he looked scared in the pocket. He has a lot to prove to his teammates this year. The team at least went out and got wide receivers. They got Laurent Robinson in free agency. Robinson came off a career year in Dallas last season and will now have the chance to shine (if Gabbert can get him the ball). They also drafted Justin Blackmon early in the first round. Blackmon was considered to be the best wide receiver in this year's draft class. It looks like Rashard Jennings is going to get the chance to start at running back, if this situation with MJD is not resolved. Jennings is more of a speed back and won't punish a defense like Jones-Drew does. The benefit for Jennings is that the offensive line is better suited as run blockers; they can struggle in pass protection. The offense will go as well as Gabbert can grasp it and perform, if not Chad Henne will get another shot as a starter. the defensive unit was very strong last year. They kept the Jaguars in a lot of games that they honestly shouldn't have been in. The defensive line's strength is with DTs Terrence Knighton and Tyson Alualu. They will hold up the middle and allow MLB Paul Posluszney to be a tackling machine and the run-stopper he has always been. The Jaguars will have to blitz their OLB's if they want to get pressure on the quarterback, but the secondary is above average and gives them the luxury of doing this. Rashean Mathis and Derek Cox are very good corners and can play both man and zone based coverages. Mathis is creeping up in age but is still very effective and provides some leadership for the secondary. There will not be much to cheer for in Jacksonville this year as they will struggle. They will be playing for Matt Barkley as they will finish 2-14 (they may compete with the Lions as a team that finishes 0-16, they do have a brutal schedule) and the defense may score more touchdowns than the offense.
That's it for today. I'll be away for a few, the NFC South breakdown should be up either Sunday or Monday. Thanks to all the readers so far.
AFC SOUTH
1. Houston Texans. The Texans are far and away the clear choice for winning this division and there is no reason to believe that they won't head to a division crown for a consecuttive season. The Texans could very well be the AFC represenative in the Super Bowl (perhaps a Super Bowl preview in Week 6 when the Packers come to Houston). Matt Schaub is a quarterback who has a lot to prove. When healthy he puts up dominant numbers and puts his team in position to when games. He is coming off a season-ending foot injury and had to watch as third-string rookie T.J. Yates led them to the division title and their first ever playoff win. Schaub, however, knows how to run this offense and won't make the mistakes that Yates did in their playoff loss to Baltimore. Schaub knows that he has a chance to take this team to the Super Bowl and that has to be his primary goal. One thing that makes his life easier is running back Arian Foster. Foster still has a chip on his shoulder for being undrafted out of college and plays like it. He runs hard and through people and has exceptional receiving skills. He is quite possibly the most complete back in the NFL right now. The texans also have the luxury of the very capable Ben Tate backing up Foster. Tate is good enough to start on most teams and one would have to assume will get that chance when his contract comes up. Schaub's main weapon in the passing game is Andre Johnson. Johnson was injured most of last year, but did come back strong in the post-season, which gives texans fans hope that Johnson will return to form this season. When healthy, Johnson is a top 5 receiver in the league. What makes Johnson great is that like this year he doesn't have a complimentary receiver opposite of him, yet he still produces even though he is the focus of the secondary. Owen Daniels is a capable tight end, he would be great, but is injury-prone and this year the Texans don't have a proven back-up at the position. The offensive line works very well with the Texans zone-blocking scheme and give holes for Foster to run through. The line, however, got weaker with tackle Eric Winston leaving in free agency, so the Texans have a hole to fill there. The defense last year became an elite defense under defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. However, they will be missing two big components. OLB Mario Williams and ILB DeMeco Ryans left the team in free agency, although these two players were never perfect fits for the new 3-4 defense that was put in. Last year's 1st round pick J.J. Watt showed that he is ready for the big time and will be expected to do more this year. Watt has a high motor and won't quit on a play. He should end up with double digit sacks this year. The linebackers are led by ILB Brian Cushing. Cushing is a former Defensive Rookie of the Year and plays very physical and is a fiery leader. Veteran Bradie James will be asked to replace DeMeco Ryans. James played in this scheme in Dallas with Wade Phillips, so he comes in understanding what will be asked of him in the system. The secondary unit is young but very skilled. Jonathon Joseph came on last year and became a top-flight corner, earning a Pro Bowl berth. Kareem Jackson needs to continue improving opposite of Joseph. There is no reason that this defense won't once again finish in the Top 5 NFL defenses this year. The Texans should finish 13-3 and sweep the divison as well as they easily win the AFC South title this year.
2. Tennessee Titans. The Titans will begin the jake Locker era this year. Locker showed a lot of promise last season when he had to step in for injured Matt Hasselbeck. Locker has a very strong arm and is very mobile, his weaknesses are his accuracy and sometimes his decision making. Locker will make some amazing plays but he will also make some mistakes, which will most likely cost the Titans a shot at the post-season. Chris Johnson is going to have to take a lot of pressure of Locker. Johnson is a big-play threat every time he touches the ball; there are few people in the world who can match his speed let alone in the NFL. Defenses when they get the chance need to put a hit on him, in order to try to slow him down over the course of the game, if not they will be looking at the back of #28's jersey a lot. Nate Washington came on strong when Kenny Britt went down early and is going to have to continue his effort from last season, with the likelihood of Britt missing some games. Britt can be one of the best in the league, but needs to stop being distracted by off the field issues. Rookie Kendall Wright is going to get a chance to play early and is going to have to show that he was worthy of a 1st round pick and not just a one year wonder in college. Jared Cook at tight end made some big plays last year and finally showed the promise of his athletic ability, if he continues to progress he could be a big playmaker for Locker. The offensive line has veteran leadership at the tackle position with Michael Roos and David Stewart, both are very good at their position but will never get the elite attention. The defense is a unit that has potential, because of their youth. Derrick Morgan and Kameron Wimbley are going to have to be great this year if this defense is going to succeed. They will both have to get plenty of pressure on the quarterback as well as play tough in the running game. Outside of veteran Will Witherspoon, the linebacking unit is unproven and will have to play over their heads to help the team win. The secondary unit is adequate with FS Michael Griffin being the star of the group, but this unit will get tested and I'm not certain they will hold up all season (they play the Texans twice, the Lions, Packers,and Patroits). All said the Titans will finish 7-9 this year but the future will be on the upswing.
3. Indianapolis Colts. The Colts had a little bit of luck last year in having Peyton Manning not play and "earn" the right to draft Andrew Luck, the most obvious successor to Peyton Manning if there ever was one. Without a doubt Luck will start on opening day. It is his team and he has to live up to the potential he showed in college. Luck can make every throw and has the intelligence to grasp the offense and make proper reads (benefits of being coached in college by a former NFL quarterback). Donald Brown is going to get the chance to be the starter at running back. Brown has yet to live up to his potential coming out of college, but he has yet to be the feature back, so this is his chance to prove something. Reggie Wayne is still a top-notch receiver and will have to help mentor a group of receiver that are young and inexperienced. He won't have as much help from Austin Collie, who suffered another concussion. Collie is a very good route runner and sure handed, but is very injury-prone, especially with concussions. Luck has the benefit of having his old college tight end joining him. Coby Fleener was considered the best tight end in this draft, but is going to have to work on his blocking at this level. The offensive line has been revamped; they are no longer the great pass blockers who struggled in the running game. This unit is more apt for both styles of play, but it is new unit so it will take some time to learn to work together. The defense has also changed going from an undersized 4-3 that was built for speed, to a 3-4 scheme. This can be a scary idea for some teams playing the Colts, because this move in scheme will make even bigger monsters out of Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. These two were Hell on wheels playing undersized defensive ends, now they will pose even bigger mismatches playing outside linebackers. Early prediction, I believe that Freeney will make a run at the season record for sacks, now that he is playing the rush linebacker position in a 3-4. The Colts brought in Cory Redding from Baltimore to help shore up the D-Line in this transition; Redding has played in this scheme so he will help mentor some of the players in the transition. The safeties in Bethea and Zbikowski are going to have to help the corners out this year. The corner position is weak for the Colts, although they will look a lot better if Freeney and Mathis can cause a lot of disruption in the passing game. This team is going to come down to how well Luck adjusts to the NFL and the pressure of replacing a legend. He should win more games than Manning did in his rookie year, but he will not lead the Colts back to the playoffs yet. The Colts will finish this season at 6-10 with signs of hope for the future of Andrew Luck.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars. Oh boy, is this team going to struggle this year. It never helps that last year's rushing champion may not even play. I'd be more on MJD's side, if this was the final year of his contract and wasn't scheduled to make $4.5 million. You were going to get paid down the line, now you are involved in a pissing contest with a new owner who doesn't show any signs of backing down. It's a shame, because MJD is a great runner and can carry that team, but now this team is going to be in complete disarray. This whole scenario does nothing to help the development of Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert looked awful last season as a rookie. He looked like he was lost and worse than that he looked scared in the pocket. He has a lot to prove to his teammates this year. The team at least went out and got wide receivers. They got Laurent Robinson in free agency. Robinson came off a career year in Dallas last season and will now have the chance to shine (if Gabbert can get him the ball). They also drafted Justin Blackmon early in the first round. Blackmon was considered to be the best wide receiver in this year's draft class. It looks like Rashard Jennings is going to get the chance to start at running back, if this situation with MJD is not resolved. Jennings is more of a speed back and won't punish a defense like Jones-Drew does. The benefit for Jennings is that the offensive line is better suited as run blockers; they can struggle in pass protection. The offense will go as well as Gabbert can grasp it and perform, if not Chad Henne will get another shot as a starter. the defensive unit was very strong last year. They kept the Jaguars in a lot of games that they honestly shouldn't have been in. The defensive line's strength is with DTs Terrence Knighton and Tyson Alualu. They will hold up the middle and allow MLB Paul Posluszney to be a tackling machine and the run-stopper he has always been. The Jaguars will have to blitz their OLB's if they want to get pressure on the quarterback, but the secondary is above average and gives them the luxury of doing this. Rashean Mathis and Derek Cox are very good corners and can play both man and zone based coverages. Mathis is creeping up in age but is still very effective and provides some leadership for the secondary. There will not be much to cheer for in Jacksonville this year as they will struggle. They will be playing for Matt Barkley as they will finish 2-14 (they may compete with the Lions as a team that finishes 0-16, they do have a brutal schedule) and the defense may score more touchdowns than the offense.
That's it for today. I'll be away for a few, the NFC South breakdown should be up either Sunday or Monday. Thanks to all the readers so far.
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
Breaking down the NFC North
OK, here goes the other North division in the NFL and can be argued as the toughest division, along with yesterday's focus the AFC North. Let's get to it.
NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay Packers. Last season was a dissappointing one for the Packers. When you blow through the regular season with a 15-1 mark, going one and done in the playoffs is a disappointment. No one can argue that the Packers were not the best team in the league last season, but the course of the season took it's toll as injuries kept mounting on their offensive line and eventually left them vulnerable. Aaron Rodgers, fresh off his MVP season, is at the very top of his game and is arguably the best quarterback in the league right now (some may argue Brees or even Brady, but I won't). He has a spectacular receiving corps to target each week. Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson are the best 1-2 punch at wide receiver in the NFL bar none. Both will run every route, fight for the tough yards and both of them can burn the defense over the top. James Jones would be at least a #2 receiver on any other team, but he is also a valuable weapon and a great vertical threat. Tight end Jermichael Finley has got to regain his confidence and forget about all the dropped balls he had last season; the Packers must have faith in him since he got a $15M extension for 2 more seasons. The running game is the weakness of the Packers offense, mostly because they choose to not utilize it. The addition of Cedric Benson could pay a huge reward for the Packers, if he shows that he can still handle the workload. If not, he will be splitting carries with James Starks who is a physical north and south runner. Fullback John Kuhn is a perfect fit for that offense, becasue he can catch out of the backfield and is a very physical blocker who opens holes for the running backs. He is also a brutal short yardage back, who gets a lot of touches in the red zone. The offensive line is very solid. The battle for the left tackle spot will be very important. Currently, it's between Marshall Newhouse and Derrick Sherrod, both are young and were forced into action last year, but whoever wins the job has to protect Aaron Rodgers's blind side and thatwill be tough in a division full of pass rushers. The addition of Jeff Saturday at center will help build a stronger line. Saturday is a great pass blocker as well as a great caller of the line protection schemes, he will call out the right blocking assignments for his offensive line. The defense for the Packers was an anomoly all of last season. Somehow, they gave up the most yards per game a whopping 411.6 average last year. What saved them was their playmaking ability, they led the league with 31 interceptions and returned 4 of those for touchdowns. So, while teams were able to move the ball on them, scoring became an issue. The Packers run a 3-4 and their front three do their jobs and eat up blockers for the linebackers. B.J. Raji is an exceptional nose tackle, who can also get penetration and a pass rush, he demands a double-team against most centers. The linebackers are young but are very active, the development of rookie Nick Perry will be important for this defensive unit as he is slated to be the starter on the strong side opposite Clay Matthews. Matthews is a complete weak side linebacker. He rushes the quarterback. He can play in coverage. He also plays the run very well. He is already a great player and will only get better. The secondary is loaded with playmakers. They will be aggressive. They will go after interceptions. Tramon Williams has turned into a top level cornerback; he will still get burned every now and again because he is aggressive, but he will make up for his mistakes. Moving Charles Woodson to strong safety is a wise decision. He is still a playmaker, but now plays with his intelligence more than his athletic ability. At safety he won't let anyone get behind him and will pick off any ball that comes floating out in the back corners of the defense. Although the Packers went 15-1 last year, they have a tough schedule at points and I predict they will go 12-4, not that they have dropped off any, just that other teams have caught up to them, but they will still win the NFC North division title.
2. Detroit Lions. Last season the Lions did something they hadn't yet done in this millennium, make the playoffs. That is a remarkable turnaround for a team that 3 seasons before that made NFL infamy by going 0-16. They are led by quarterback Matthew Stafford, who finally got to play a full season last year and show the league why he was #1 pick in the draft. He should come into this season feeling somewhat disrespected after a 5000 yard and 41 TD season, left him as only the 3rd alternate to the Pro Bowl. Considering the Lions have an unproven running game, look for Stafford to throw the ball a lot once again. Normally, that's not something you want to say, but when you are throwing to Calvin "Megatron" Johnson you want as many chances to put the ball in his hands as possible. Johnson elevated his game last year to the heights where it seemed he was impossible to cover (see the TD catch against 3 Dallas defenders last year). His only limitation right now is his route running ability, but he has gotten better each season. Titus Young came on last year as a rookie, but one has to hope he gets his attitude straightened out (preseason fights with teammates as well as some stupid 15 yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalities last year). Nate Burleson is getting older but still can be a scary target, especially is defenses try to double and triple team Johnson. He will be pushed in camp by rookie Ryan Broyles, Broyles is the all-time NCAA leader in receptions and just has a way of getting open. If he is fully healthy from the ACL tear he suffered in his senoir year, he will make a push for the #3 receiver. Brandon Pettigrew is a true tight end. He is a good blocker on the line and he can make plenty of plays in the passing game. His red zone targets are lower than one would like for a big tight end, but when you got #81 out there, everyone is the 2nd option in the red zone. There's not much to say about the running game, theie jobs will be to keep defenses honest, unless Mikel Leshoure can prove that he can handle the load after he comes back from suspension. Jahvid Best is a home run hitter but can not stay healthy and will start the season on the PUP list and maybe head for an early retirement. The offensive line is a solid unit. They do their jobs and are led by veteran LT Jeff Backus and C Domininck Raiola, both were drafted in 2001 so age is starting to be a concern. If the line is healthy they do a good job keeping Stafford clean, although they need to be more effective run blocking. The defense has done much work getting better, but still has room to grow. The heart of the defense comes from their front 4. The Lions have an 8 man rotation here and don't often miss a beat when they rotate in and out. The front four goes as well as Ndumakong Suh goes. If Suh has his head on and is being a disruptive force, then he gets doubled and it opens everything up for the other guys. Suh has to stop getting so many personal foul penalities, but at least he often makes a big play to counter his idoit play. Cliff Avril on the edge has become an elite pass rusher. Avril has the speed and power to play on both end positions on the defense. Avril likes to make plays when he goes for a sack, his 6 forced fumbles last year prove this. The linebacking corps is solid, but need to work on their tackling (see the Saints playoff loss, where they got run through). That is surprising because MLB Steven Tulloch came with the reputation as a tackling machine, he needs to be a great run stopper. DeAndre Levy is a versitile LOLB, he can play all three linebacker spots and can rush the passer as well as cover in zone. The front 7, especially the front 4, have to get pressure on the quarterback, to cover up an average at best secondary. FS Louis Delmas can be one of the best in the game, but he is so aggressive that he oft times misses a coverage or gets injured. CB Chris Houston shows flashes of greatness from time to time, but he does get beat a fair amount of the time, but Houston is a danger to opposing QB's because he does have good interception ability. The Lions will do something they haven't done since the Barry Sanders years and that is make the playoffs in consecutive seasons as they go 11-5 and secure a wild card spot.
3. Chicago Bears. The Bears made their big move in the offseason by going all Peaches and Herb with the reuniting of Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall. This move makes the Bears a serious contender. The Bears were looking like serious threats last year til injuries to Cutler and Matt Forte put a kibosh on those hopes. Cutler is quietly turning into an elite quarterback whose number are only going to get better with the addition of Marshall. Cutler can make every throw and is losing some of the gunslinger attitude and has lowered his interceptions. Matt Forte is one of the most versatile running backs in the league. He is a dual-threat; you have to be concerned with him running the ball as well as his ability in the passing game. The addition of Michael Bush gives the Bears a power back, who also can catch the ball out of the backfield. This is a dangerous duo of running backs for Bears opponents. I wouldn't be surprised to see them go to sets with Forte split out as receiver and Bush in the backfield, it would create a lot of creative matchups. Brandon Marshall has the diva attitude, but he does back up his mouth on the field. The guy just produces and now he has a quarterback once again who can get him the ball anywhere on the field. Devin Hester is still a work in progress as a receiver, but he is a threat because he can blow the top off the defense with his speed, not to mention his game changing ability as a kick returner (why people still kick to him, I'll never understand). Kellen Davis has the tools to be a very solid tight end. He won't burn anyone down the field but he will get open and is a good in-line blocker. The offensive line has had problems over the years. They need to keep the pressure of Cutler. Cutler has taken some beatings behind that O-Line and I feel that may continue again this year. The defense has been a strength of this team for as long as anyone can remember. Brian Urlacher continues to lead this defense and has done an amazing job of it. He fills the Chicago tradition in the middle started by Butkus and Singletary. Julius Peppers is an elite pass rusher and was a great fit for the Bears. He needs to continue to apply pressure, but he also has to help in run support a little bit more. Lance Briggs has quietly been on of the top linebackers in this league for a long time. He can do it all on the field and is a very solid tackler. Charles Tillman is a ballhawk, plain and simple. He will do whatever he can to get into an opposing receiver's head and then use that to make a big play later in the game. The Bears are set for a return engagement to the playoffs as they finish the season 11-5 and earn the second wild card berth.
4. Minnesota Vikings. Oh how quick the Vikings have fallen. They were competing for the Super Bowl a few years ago, now they are in compition to not be the worst team in the league. Make no mistake about it, this team revolves around Adrian Peterson. Peterson to his credit is trying like Hell to be ready for the regular season after having his ACL and MCL torn in Week 16 last season. Not even all the ice baths in the land of a 1,000 lakes are going to help him. He is most likely rushing his return and even if he does start, how effective will he be during the early part of the seaon or worse yet, will he get reinjured. If he can't take a hit in practice, then how is he going to take one in a game, when you know people are going to go after his knee. Christian Ponder will have the task of leading the team. He showed some flashes as a rookie, but also showed that he was a rookie, making a lot of mistakes. Percy Harvin will be his primary target and Harvin has game-changing ability, but will most certainly face double teams or safeties rolling over the top, because there is no legitimate threat elsewhere in the Vikings passing game Good news for Ponder the Vikings drafted a left tackle in Matt Kahil to protect him. The bad news is that he is a rookie playing left tackle and will miss some blocking assignments. John Sullivan is solid center and Phil Loadholt is a good right tackle, but the rest of the offensive line is not as good as it needs to be and will hold this team back. The defense is led by Jared Allen, who made a run at the single-season sack record last year. Allen is the type of pass rusher who will pick his spots to make a big play. He seems to be unblockable in moments where the game is on the line. The rest of the defensive line isn't as good as it once once and Kevin Williams is starting to decline without his brother from another mother Pat Williams gone from the team. The linebackers are solid. They will do their job, but they won't make many huge plays. However, they won't give up many big runs through the middle. Antoine Winfield is creeping up on retirement age, but he still has a skill set that can be troublesome for most receivers. He also reads plays well and will jump on a ball if the quarterback telegraphs his throw. Harrison Smith will push for a starting safety job and be a solid player for the future. Overall, there will probably be more noise coming out of the Mall of America, then at Mall of America Stadium as the Vikings will struggle, but they are only a few pieces away from fighting back up to the top of a tough division. A 4-12 season seems likely, with the weak schedule they have, but they are not a threat to anyone this season.
OK, that does it for the NFC North, sorry it took an extra day, but life gets in the way. Tomorrow, look for the AFC South review.
NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay Packers. Last season was a dissappointing one for the Packers. When you blow through the regular season with a 15-1 mark, going one and done in the playoffs is a disappointment. No one can argue that the Packers were not the best team in the league last season, but the course of the season took it's toll as injuries kept mounting on their offensive line and eventually left them vulnerable. Aaron Rodgers, fresh off his MVP season, is at the very top of his game and is arguably the best quarterback in the league right now (some may argue Brees or even Brady, but I won't). He has a spectacular receiving corps to target each week. Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson are the best 1-2 punch at wide receiver in the NFL bar none. Both will run every route, fight for the tough yards and both of them can burn the defense over the top. James Jones would be at least a #2 receiver on any other team, but he is also a valuable weapon and a great vertical threat. Tight end Jermichael Finley has got to regain his confidence and forget about all the dropped balls he had last season; the Packers must have faith in him since he got a $15M extension for 2 more seasons. The running game is the weakness of the Packers offense, mostly because they choose to not utilize it. The addition of Cedric Benson could pay a huge reward for the Packers, if he shows that he can still handle the workload. If not, he will be splitting carries with James Starks who is a physical north and south runner. Fullback John Kuhn is a perfect fit for that offense, becasue he can catch out of the backfield and is a very physical blocker who opens holes for the running backs. He is also a brutal short yardage back, who gets a lot of touches in the red zone. The offensive line is very solid. The battle for the left tackle spot will be very important. Currently, it's between Marshall Newhouse and Derrick Sherrod, both are young and were forced into action last year, but whoever wins the job has to protect Aaron Rodgers's blind side and thatwill be tough in a division full of pass rushers. The addition of Jeff Saturday at center will help build a stronger line. Saturday is a great pass blocker as well as a great caller of the line protection schemes, he will call out the right blocking assignments for his offensive line. The defense for the Packers was an anomoly all of last season. Somehow, they gave up the most yards per game a whopping 411.6 average last year. What saved them was their playmaking ability, they led the league with 31 interceptions and returned 4 of those for touchdowns. So, while teams were able to move the ball on them, scoring became an issue. The Packers run a 3-4 and their front three do their jobs and eat up blockers for the linebackers. B.J. Raji is an exceptional nose tackle, who can also get penetration and a pass rush, he demands a double-team against most centers. The linebackers are young but are very active, the development of rookie Nick Perry will be important for this defensive unit as he is slated to be the starter on the strong side opposite Clay Matthews. Matthews is a complete weak side linebacker. He rushes the quarterback. He can play in coverage. He also plays the run very well. He is already a great player and will only get better. The secondary is loaded with playmakers. They will be aggressive. They will go after interceptions. Tramon Williams has turned into a top level cornerback; he will still get burned every now and again because he is aggressive, but he will make up for his mistakes. Moving Charles Woodson to strong safety is a wise decision. He is still a playmaker, but now plays with his intelligence more than his athletic ability. At safety he won't let anyone get behind him and will pick off any ball that comes floating out in the back corners of the defense. Although the Packers went 15-1 last year, they have a tough schedule at points and I predict they will go 12-4, not that they have dropped off any, just that other teams have caught up to them, but they will still win the NFC North division title.
2. Detroit Lions. Last season the Lions did something they hadn't yet done in this millennium, make the playoffs. That is a remarkable turnaround for a team that 3 seasons before that made NFL infamy by going 0-16. They are led by quarterback Matthew Stafford, who finally got to play a full season last year and show the league why he was #1 pick in the draft. He should come into this season feeling somewhat disrespected after a 5000 yard and 41 TD season, left him as only the 3rd alternate to the Pro Bowl. Considering the Lions have an unproven running game, look for Stafford to throw the ball a lot once again. Normally, that's not something you want to say, but when you are throwing to Calvin "Megatron" Johnson you want as many chances to put the ball in his hands as possible. Johnson elevated his game last year to the heights where it seemed he was impossible to cover (see the TD catch against 3 Dallas defenders last year). His only limitation right now is his route running ability, but he has gotten better each season. Titus Young came on last year as a rookie, but one has to hope he gets his attitude straightened out (preseason fights with teammates as well as some stupid 15 yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalities last year). Nate Burleson is getting older but still can be a scary target, especially is defenses try to double and triple team Johnson. He will be pushed in camp by rookie Ryan Broyles, Broyles is the all-time NCAA leader in receptions and just has a way of getting open. If he is fully healthy from the ACL tear he suffered in his senoir year, he will make a push for the #3 receiver. Brandon Pettigrew is a true tight end. He is a good blocker on the line and he can make plenty of plays in the passing game. His red zone targets are lower than one would like for a big tight end, but when you got #81 out there, everyone is the 2nd option in the red zone. There's not much to say about the running game, theie jobs will be to keep defenses honest, unless Mikel Leshoure can prove that he can handle the load after he comes back from suspension. Jahvid Best is a home run hitter but can not stay healthy and will start the season on the PUP list and maybe head for an early retirement. The offensive line is a solid unit. They do their jobs and are led by veteran LT Jeff Backus and C Domininck Raiola, both were drafted in 2001 so age is starting to be a concern. If the line is healthy they do a good job keeping Stafford clean, although they need to be more effective run blocking. The defense has done much work getting better, but still has room to grow. The heart of the defense comes from their front 4. The Lions have an 8 man rotation here and don't often miss a beat when they rotate in and out. The front four goes as well as Ndumakong Suh goes. If Suh has his head on and is being a disruptive force, then he gets doubled and it opens everything up for the other guys. Suh has to stop getting so many personal foul penalities, but at least he often makes a big play to counter his idoit play. Cliff Avril on the edge has become an elite pass rusher. Avril has the speed and power to play on both end positions on the defense. Avril likes to make plays when he goes for a sack, his 6 forced fumbles last year prove this. The linebacking corps is solid, but need to work on their tackling (see the Saints playoff loss, where they got run through). That is surprising because MLB Steven Tulloch came with the reputation as a tackling machine, he needs to be a great run stopper. DeAndre Levy is a versitile LOLB, he can play all three linebacker spots and can rush the passer as well as cover in zone. The front 7, especially the front 4, have to get pressure on the quarterback, to cover up an average at best secondary. FS Louis Delmas can be one of the best in the game, but he is so aggressive that he oft times misses a coverage or gets injured. CB Chris Houston shows flashes of greatness from time to time, but he does get beat a fair amount of the time, but Houston is a danger to opposing QB's because he does have good interception ability. The Lions will do something they haven't done since the Barry Sanders years and that is make the playoffs in consecutive seasons as they go 11-5 and secure a wild card spot.
3. Chicago Bears. The Bears made their big move in the offseason by going all Peaches and Herb with the reuniting of Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall. This move makes the Bears a serious contender. The Bears were looking like serious threats last year til injuries to Cutler and Matt Forte put a kibosh on those hopes. Cutler is quietly turning into an elite quarterback whose number are only going to get better with the addition of Marshall. Cutler can make every throw and is losing some of the gunslinger attitude and has lowered his interceptions. Matt Forte is one of the most versatile running backs in the league. He is a dual-threat; you have to be concerned with him running the ball as well as his ability in the passing game. The addition of Michael Bush gives the Bears a power back, who also can catch the ball out of the backfield. This is a dangerous duo of running backs for Bears opponents. I wouldn't be surprised to see them go to sets with Forte split out as receiver and Bush in the backfield, it would create a lot of creative matchups. Brandon Marshall has the diva attitude, but he does back up his mouth on the field. The guy just produces and now he has a quarterback once again who can get him the ball anywhere on the field. Devin Hester is still a work in progress as a receiver, but he is a threat because he can blow the top off the defense with his speed, not to mention his game changing ability as a kick returner (why people still kick to him, I'll never understand). Kellen Davis has the tools to be a very solid tight end. He won't burn anyone down the field but he will get open and is a good in-line blocker. The offensive line has had problems over the years. They need to keep the pressure of Cutler. Cutler has taken some beatings behind that O-Line and I feel that may continue again this year. The defense has been a strength of this team for as long as anyone can remember. Brian Urlacher continues to lead this defense and has done an amazing job of it. He fills the Chicago tradition in the middle started by Butkus and Singletary. Julius Peppers is an elite pass rusher and was a great fit for the Bears. He needs to continue to apply pressure, but he also has to help in run support a little bit more. Lance Briggs has quietly been on of the top linebackers in this league for a long time. He can do it all on the field and is a very solid tackler. Charles Tillman is a ballhawk, plain and simple. He will do whatever he can to get into an opposing receiver's head and then use that to make a big play later in the game. The Bears are set for a return engagement to the playoffs as they finish the season 11-5 and earn the second wild card berth.
4. Minnesota Vikings. Oh how quick the Vikings have fallen. They were competing for the Super Bowl a few years ago, now they are in compition to not be the worst team in the league. Make no mistake about it, this team revolves around Adrian Peterson. Peterson to his credit is trying like Hell to be ready for the regular season after having his ACL and MCL torn in Week 16 last season. Not even all the ice baths in the land of a 1,000 lakes are going to help him. He is most likely rushing his return and even if he does start, how effective will he be during the early part of the seaon or worse yet, will he get reinjured. If he can't take a hit in practice, then how is he going to take one in a game, when you know people are going to go after his knee. Christian Ponder will have the task of leading the team. He showed some flashes as a rookie, but also showed that he was a rookie, making a lot of mistakes. Percy Harvin will be his primary target and Harvin has game-changing ability, but will most certainly face double teams or safeties rolling over the top, because there is no legitimate threat elsewhere in the Vikings passing game Good news for Ponder the Vikings drafted a left tackle in Matt Kahil to protect him. The bad news is that he is a rookie playing left tackle and will miss some blocking assignments. John Sullivan is solid center and Phil Loadholt is a good right tackle, but the rest of the offensive line is not as good as it needs to be and will hold this team back. The defense is led by Jared Allen, who made a run at the single-season sack record last year. Allen is the type of pass rusher who will pick his spots to make a big play. He seems to be unblockable in moments where the game is on the line. The rest of the defensive line isn't as good as it once once and Kevin Williams is starting to decline without his brother from another mother Pat Williams gone from the team. The linebackers are solid. They will do their job, but they won't make many huge plays. However, they won't give up many big runs through the middle. Antoine Winfield is creeping up on retirement age, but he still has a skill set that can be troublesome for most receivers. He also reads plays well and will jump on a ball if the quarterback telegraphs his throw. Harrison Smith will push for a starting safety job and be a solid player for the future. Overall, there will probably be more noise coming out of the Mall of America, then at Mall of America Stadium as the Vikings will struggle, but they are only a few pieces away from fighting back up to the top of a tough division. A 4-12 season seems likely, with the weak schedule they have, but they are not a threat to anyone this season.
OK, that does it for the NFC North, sorry it took an extra day, but life gets in the way. Tomorrow, look for the AFC South review.
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
Breaking down the AFC North
OK, it's now time to break down one of the 2 toughest divisions in the NFL. Both the AFC and NFC North's are the toughest divisions in their respective conferences. These 2 conferences posted 5 of the 12 playoff teams between them last year, which just goes to show their dominance. Today, i will do the AFC North breakdown and predictions for the upcoming season, then tomorrow I will go to the NFC.
AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens. Last year's runner-up in the AFC Championship game is looking to rebound from that sour taste in their mouth from being so close to a trip to a Super Bowl. Joe Flacco has proven himself to be a top quarterback in this league, while he does not put super numbers he wins games. As a matter of fact, no quarterback has won more games since he entered the league. It may not always be pretty, but no one can argue his effectiveness. Ray Rice has without a doubt proven himself as one of the top running backs in the game. He can beat you running the ball and he is also a huge threat catching passes out of the backfield. Stopping the Ravens offense starts here; if you can shut down Rice, then your team has a good chance of stopping the Ravens. The receiving corps is not the strongest in the league. Anquan Boldin is showing signs of slowing down, but he is still a relentless competitor who will fight for every catch and every yard. Torrey Smith was a pleasant surprise for the Ravens last year. His speed makes him a tough cover for any corner and Flacco does have the arm to get him the ball downfield. Ed Dickson is turning into a very solid tight end in this league and will continue to be a red zone threat. The offensive line is excellent and solid at all spots and will continue to open up holes for Rice and protect Flacco. You can't talk about the Ravens without talking about that defense. Yes, it is getting older, but you can not replace the leadership of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, and while Father Time may be setting them into the twilight of their HOF careers, they still have the knowledge to put them into position to make the necessary plays. The problem with this Ravens defense is the injury to Terrell Suggs. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year will miss most of the season, if not all of it due to an off-season Achilles tendon tear. Suggs is a relentless pass rusher and can be completely dominant at times and his shoes are going to be attempted to be filled by rookie Courtney Upshaw. Upshaw was a 1st round talent in this past year's draft that unbelievably fell to the 2nd round. The Ravens need big things from this rookie, who does have the strength and speed to make an excellent rush linebacker in the Ravens 3-4 scheme. The corners for the Ravens are the weak spot of this defense. They can be physical and aggressive, but that also leads to getting burned by receivers and give up a big play. The Ravens will end up winning the division again with an 11-5 record, but their window is closing very quickly.
2. Cincinati Bengals. The once maligned Bengals have come around very quietly and quickly and are primed and ready to be the dominant team in this division for many years to come. They are young, but they are focused and mature unlike the youth of the past from this team, who sought the limelight more than success on the field. Andy Dalton showed a lot of promise last year in leading this team to the playoffs. He is a confident player, who will not beat his team, although he is looking to shake off his first playoff loss last season. He is blessed to have an extremely talented receiver in A.J. Green on his side. Green is a playmaker. He has the speed to beat you deep as well as the determination to run the tough routes and beat press coverages. The problem will be who will be the neutralizer on the other side of the field. Teams can roll their safety over the top to help against Green, cause there isn't a proven target opposite of him at this time. They brought in BenJarvus Green-Ellis to pick up the running game left with a vacant hole, when the team decided not to bring back Cedric Benson. Green-Ellis is a very reliable back who left New England to be a legitimate starter and not part of the committee that the Patroits use. Jermaine Gresham has improved every year and will continue to be a top target for Dalton over the middle. The offensive line has improved every year and will give Dalton time to throw. The Bengals front 4 may be the most underrated in the league. They are all big guys, yet have the quickness to get after the quarterback. I expect a big year out of Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap on the edge as well as Geno Atkins and Domata Peko on the interior of the D-Line. These 4 allow the linebackers to make plays. They can bring heat from either side with their OLB's both can be effective pass rushers. Rey Maualuga has learned how to play in the middle and is quietly becoming a top MLB. The secondary is very good as well. Leon Hall is a physical corner, who plays well against the run and can press WR's. Nate Clements is getting older but he is still a solid option at the #2 CB. Taylor Mays and Reggie Nelson could be very well be the most dynamic safety combination in the league, both are young playmakers on the back end with Mays having the speed to cover and Nelson is an aggressive hitter. I see the Bengals also going 11-5, but will lose the divison due to head-to-head tiebreaker with the Ravens, but will once again earn a wild-card spot in the playoffs.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers. The Pittsburgh Steelers are at a crossroad right now. The once dominant team for the last several years has started to get old. There are some youthful spots on the roster, but there are areas that need to be looked at as far as having players ready to step in when some of the greats retire. The Steelers have a fast group of wide receivers, however, one has to wonder how ready or how much of a distraction Mike Wallace will be when he shows up to camp. The organization brought in Todd Haley to run the offense. Haley will utilize the receivers strengths by running a lot of quick slants in order to make big plays without having Big Ben holding on to the ball too long. Big Ben is one of the best quarterback's in the league, however, no quarterback in the league has taken a beating like Ben has. The Steelers running game is in a state of flux. They won't have Mendenhall til at least October and then that'll be a question of whether or not he will even be in game shape. Issac Redman is a nice power back and Jonathon Dwyer has looked good in the preseason so far. They drafted some speed with the pick of Chris Rainey who will also be dangerous on kick returns. I expect Heath Miller to actually play a bigger role in the offense this year, he's a great tight end who some how seems to get lost in the play calling, but Haley likes throwing the ball to the tight end to set up the deep passing game. The offensive line, which has been a problem in the past (see all of Big Ben's sacks over the years), was actually looked at in the draft. David DeCastro, the Steelers 1st round pick, has the potential to be the best guard since Alan Faneca was in Pittsburgh. Mike Adams, their 2nd round pick, has the ability to make a good left tackle, however, if he starts as a rookie there will be some growing pains and he may have trouble with pure speed rushers. The Steeler defense, while it will be very good, will have some struggles this year. Replacing the veteran James Farrior with Larry Foote is a downgrade. Foote just doesn't have Farrior's instincts and leadership. It appears to be a changing of the guard on the D-line. Ziggy Hood will finally get his chance to start with Aaron Smith's retirement and probably Steve McClendon will win the starting nose tackle job from the long time veteran Casey Hampton. Woodley and Timmons are great players who make big plays for the Steeler Defense. The health of James Harrison is going to be a cause for concern. If he can play to his level during the season, then no problem, but one has to wonder how his back will hold up. The Steelers do not have an adequate replacement for him, unless they move Timmons out of the middle, but that would leave a big hole there as well. The secondary is better than most teams. Ike Taylor has shown that he can be a shutdown corner, but it's the oposite side that has been devoid of equal talent for a long time. The safety tandem of Clark and Polamalu is as good as it gets. They play the opposite role for their position from time to time, as Clark seems to be more of the strong safety and Troy roams around a lot playing a hybrid free/strong safety/outside linebacker. Polamalu has the trust of the team to break from scheme and freelance to read plays and he is highly successful, but this can cause a strain in coverage and sometimes leads to the Steelers D giving up a huge play. All in all the Steelers are still one of the best teams in the league and their 10-6 record will show that as they earn the 2nd wild card spot and go playoff dancing for another season.
4. Cleveland Browns. There hasn't been much to cheer for Browns fans lately, but there seems to be signs of life coming off the banks of Lake Erie. Quarterback Brandon Weeden, while he may be an old rookie, has the chance to be the best quarterback in Cleveland since Bernie Kosar. The Browns bet the house on Trent Richardson to help carry the load of the team. Everyone seems to love Richardson and how he has a chance to be an elite running back, however, I have reservations against a running back who has to play the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals defenses twice a year. Greg Little turned into a quality target last season and should continue to see a lot of targets, since the receiving corps is not very strong. Ben Watson needs to become a big target to take some pressure off the rookie QB. The offensive line has some strong parts, Joe Thomas and Alex Mack, yet, as a whole it needs some improvement. The Browns D has gotten better every year over the last couple of years. The front 4 is mostly young guys, but they are very talented and make plays and do their jobs. D'Qwell Jackson is a underrated MLB, the guy is a tackling machine and moves sideline-to-sideline very well. They will miss Fujita for some time, due to his alleged role in the Saints bounty program. Joe Haden is a top level corner, who excels at both man and zone coverage and he's not afraid to provide solid run support. Sheldon Brown is a solid veteran on the other side. The safeties Haag and Ward are young and show it on the field from time-to-time. They make big plays and they make big mistakes as well, but they show improvement which is all one can ask for. The Browns need a few pieces to compete for the division crown in this division, but they are getting better and should finish this season 6-10, making one shocking upset (which I will call later in the season).
AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens. Last year's runner-up in the AFC Championship game is looking to rebound from that sour taste in their mouth from being so close to a trip to a Super Bowl. Joe Flacco has proven himself to be a top quarterback in this league, while he does not put super numbers he wins games. As a matter of fact, no quarterback has won more games since he entered the league. It may not always be pretty, but no one can argue his effectiveness. Ray Rice has without a doubt proven himself as one of the top running backs in the game. He can beat you running the ball and he is also a huge threat catching passes out of the backfield. Stopping the Ravens offense starts here; if you can shut down Rice, then your team has a good chance of stopping the Ravens. The receiving corps is not the strongest in the league. Anquan Boldin is showing signs of slowing down, but he is still a relentless competitor who will fight for every catch and every yard. Torrey Smith was a pleasant surprise for the Ravens last year. His speed makes him a tough cover for any corner and Flacco does have the arm to get him the ball downfield. Ed Dickson is turning into a very solid tight end in this league and will continue to be a red zone threat. The offensive line is excellent and solid at all spots and will continue to open up holes for Rice and protect Flacco. You can't talk about the Ravens without talking about that defense. Yes, it is getting older, but you can not replace the leadership of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, and while Father Time may be setting them into the twilight of their HOF careers, they still have the knowledge to put them into position to make the necessary plays. The problem with this Ravens defense is the injury to Terrell Suggs. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year will miss most of the season, if not all of it due to an off-season Achilles tendon tear. Suggs is a relentless pass rusher and can be completely dominant at times and his shoes are going to be attempted to be filled by rookie Courtney Upshaw. Upshaw was a 1st round talent in this past year's draft that unbelievably fell to the 2nd round. The Ravens need big things from this rookie, who does have the strength and speed to make an excellent rush linebacker in the Ravens 3-4 scheme. The corners for the Ravens are the weak spot of this defense. They can be physical and aggressive, but that also leads to getting burned by receivers and give up a big play. The Ravens will end up winning the division again with an 11-5 record, but their window is closing very quickly.
2. Cincinati Bengals. The once maligned Bengals have come around very quietly and quickly and are primed and ready to be the dominant team in this division for many years to come. They are young, but they are focused and mature unlike the youth of the past from this team, who sought the limelight more than success on the field. Andy Dalton showed a lot of promise last year in leading this team to the playoffs. He is a confident player, who will not beat his team, although he is looking to shake off his first playoff loss last season. He is blessed to have an extremely talented receiver in A.J. Green on his side. Green is a playmaker. He has the speed to beat you deep as well as the determination to run the tough routes and beat press coverages. The problem will be who will be the neutralizer on the other side of the field. Teams can roll their safety over the top to help against Green, cause there isn't a proven target opposite of him at this time. They brought in BenJarvus Green-Ellis to pick up the running game left with a vacant hole, when the team decided not to bring back Cedric Benson. Green-Ellis is a very reliable back who left New England to be a legitimate starter and not part of the committee that the Patroits use. Jermaine Gresham has improved every year and will continue to be a top target for Dalton over the middle. The offensive line has improved every year and will give Dalton time to throw. The Bengals front 4 may be the most underrated in the league. They are all big guys, yet have the quickness to get after the quarterback. I expect a big year out of Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap on the edge as well as Geno Atkins and Domata Peko on the interior of the D-Line. These 4 allow the linebackers to make plays. They can bring heat from either side with their OLB's both can be effective pass rushers. Rey Maualuga has learned how to play in the middle and is quietly becoming a top MLB. The secondary is very good as well. Leon Hall is a physical corner, who plays well against the run and can press WR's. Nate Clements is getting older but he is still a solid option at the #2 CB. Taylor Mays and Reggie Nelson could be very well be the most dynamic safety combination in the league, both are young playmakers on the back end with Mays having the speed to cover and Nelson is an aggressive hitter. I see the Bengals also going 11-5, but will lose the divison due to head-to-head tiebreaker with the Ravens, but will once again earn a wild-card spot in the playoffs.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers. The Pittsburgh Steelers are at a crossroad right now. The once dominant team for the last several years has started to get old. There are some youthful spots on the roster, but there are areas that need to be looked at as far as having players ready to step in when some of the greats retire. The Steelers have a fast group of wide receivers, however, one has to wonder how ready or how much of a distraction Mike Wallace will be when he shows up to camp. The organization brought in Todd Haley to run the offense. Haley will utilize the receivers strengths by running a lot of quick slants in order to make big plays without having Big Ben holding on to the ball too long. Big Ben is one of the best quarterback's in the league, however, no quarterback in the league has taken a beating like Ben has. The Steelers running game is in a state of flux. They won't have Mendenhall til at least October and then that'll be a question of whether or not he will even be in game shape. Issac Redman is a nice power back and Jonathon Dwyer has looked good in the preseason so far. They drafted some speed with the pick of Chris Rainey who will also be dangerous on kick returns. I expect Heath Miller to actually play a bigger role in the offense this year, he's a great tight end who some how seems to get lost in the play calling, but Haley likes throwing the ball to the tight end to set up the deep passing game. The offensive line, which has been a problem in the past (see all of Big Ben's sacks over the years), was actually looked at in the draft. David DeCastro, the Steelers 1st round pick, has the potential to be the best guard since Alan Faneca was in Pittsburgh. Mike Adams, their 2nd round pick, has the ability to make a good left tackle, however, if he starts as a rookie there will be some growing pains and he may have trouble with pure speed rushers. The Steeler defense, while it will be very good, will have some struggles this year. Replacing the veteran James Farrior with Larry Foote is a downgrade. Foote just doesn't have Farrior's instincts and leadership. It appears to be a changing of the guard on the D-line. Ziggy Hood will finally get his chance to start with Aaron Smith's retirement and probably Steve McClendon will win the starting nose tackle job from the long time veteran Casey Hampton. Woodley and Timmons are great players who make big plays for the Steeler Defense. The health of James Harrison is going to be a cause for concern. If he can play to his level during the season, then no problem, but one has to wonder how his back will hold up. The Steelers do not have an adequate replacement for him, unless they move Timmons out of the middle, but that would leave a big hole there as well. The secondary is better than most teams. Ike Taylor has shown that he can be a shutdown corner, but it's the oposite side that has been devoid of equal talent for a long time. The safety tandem of Clark and Polamalu is as good as it gets. They play the opposite role for their position from time to time, as Clark seems to be more of the strong safety and Troy roams around a lot playing a hybrid free/strong safety/outside linebacker. Polamalu has the trust of the team to break from scheme and freelance to read plays and he is highly successful, but this can cause a strain in coverage and sometimes leads to the Steelers D giving up a huge play. All in all the Steelers are still one of the best teams in the league and their 10-6 record will show that as they earn the 2nd wild card spot and go playoff dancing for another season.
4. Cleveland Browns. There hasn't been much to cheer for Browns fans lately, but there seems to be signs of life coming off the banks of Lake Erie. Quarterback Brandon Weeden, while he may be an old rookie, has the chance to be the best quarterback in Cleveland since Bernie Kosar. The Browns bet the house on Trent Richardson to help carry the load of the team. Everyone seems to love Richardson and how he has a chance to be an elite running back, however, I have reservations against a running back who has to play the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals defenses twice a year. Greg Little turned into a quality target last season and should continue to see a lot of targets, since the receiving corps is not very strong. Ben Watson needs to become a big target to take some pressure off the rookie QB. The offensive line has some strong parts, Joe Thomas and Alex Mack, yet, as a whole it needs some improvement. The Browns D has gotten better every year over the last couple of years. The front 4 is mostly young guys, but they are very talented and make plays and do their jobs. D'Qwell Jackson is a underrated MLB, the guy is a tackling machine and moves sideline-to-sideline very well. They will miss Fujita for some time, due to his alleged role in the Saints bounty program. Joe Haden is a top level corner, who excels at both man and zone coverage and he's not afraid to provide solid run support. Sheldon Brown is a solid veteran on the other side. The safeties Haag and Ward are young and show it on the field from time-to-time. They make big plays and they make big mistakes as well, but they show improvement which is all one can ask for. The Browns need a few pieces to compete for the division crown in this division, but they are getting better and should finish this season 6-10, making one shocking upset (which I will call later in the season).
Monday, August 20, 2012
AFC and NFC East predictions
Today, I'll be looking at the two East divisions and what their seasons may have in store for them. First, I'll start off with the AFC East and how each team will break down and how I feel their records will be.
AFC EAST
1. New England Patriots. Yes, I'm not going out on a limb here, with last season's Super Bowl loser, they are still the class of this division. Also, take into account they have somehow managed to have one of the easiest schedules this year (a meaningless stat to me, cause it is based off the previous season's record, teams change each year) and the Brady/Belichick gang should auto-pilot into another division crown. They did address some needs on Defense through the draft, although they are still a little suspect, especially in the secondary, but they do a good job disguising coverages and find ways to scheme a their opponents into making mistakes. The offense got a little better with the loss of OchoJohnson and replacing him with Brandon Llyod. Llyod is a versitale playmaker who will benefit from having Welker, Gronk and Hernandez gathering attention through the middle. Brady is Brady, he will rarely make mistakes to cost his team a game and will put his team in position to win each week. My prediction for New England is 13-3 and AFC East champs.
2. New York Jets. This team is either going to be very scary or a beautiful disaster. It all comes down to how Rex Ryan handles #15. If Rex keeps his faith in Mark Sanchez, then I feel the team will be good and compete but will hover around the .500 mark. If Rex goes to Timmy Tebow, then it's a whole new ball game. Love him or hate him, Tebow plays the game with an unbridled passion and is a true leader that his teammates will follow. Sanchez is heading for an ambush, with the way the Jets plan on utilizing Tebow early in the season, it's going to appear that Tebow is more successful, because he's going to be put in position to succeed. He's going to score touchdowns in the red zone. He's going to convert short yardage plays. I liken the scenario to the Willie Parker/Jerome Bettis situation the Steelers had in the mid 2000's. Willie did all the grunt work and Jerome got the glory for finishing drives down inside the 5. This will happen with Sanchez/Tebow and I believe Sanchez will eventually fold under the pressure and Rex will be forced to go to Tebow, who will have won over his teammates by then. If this happens before mid-season I believe the Jets will be a serious wild-card contender, because their defense is strong enough to keep them in every game and somehow, against all odds Tebow will find ways to win games. So, I will have 2 records here predicted for the Jets. If Sanchez is the starter all season, then the Jets will be 8-8. If Tebow takes over at some point, then the Jets will finish 10-6, but just miss the playoffs (more on the reason why on Tuesday).
3. Buffalo Bills. On paper, this is perhaps the most improved team in the division. Injuries last season, prevented the Bills from making a playoff run. The question this year is whether or not the offensive line will hold up. The interior is strong, but I have reservations about the 2 tackles, which will cause problems keeping Ryan Fitzpatrick upright and healthy all year. Fitzpatrick is a quality starter who makes the right choices the majority of the time and is a leader of the team. Fred Jackson, who is coming off a broken leg last season, is easily the most underappriciated back in the league. All he does is produce positive plays in the running and the passing game. the Bills have a bonus in C.J. Spiller, who showed he can carry the load when Jackson got hurt, so this is a nice 1-2 punch in the backfield. The big issue is Steve Johnson. He is a talented receiver, however, he has a tendency to want to be a diva, and cost his team more then help. If he can get his head on straight and just play football, then he could turn into a great young receiver, but that's a big if. The defense got better with the addition of Mario Williams and Mark Anderson; these are two guys who will put pressure on the quarterback. If they can consistentally put pressure on quarterbacks, then the young playmaking secondary will make a lot of big plays and they will win some games. However, there are still some holes on this team and I doubt they will be able to do better than 7-9.
4. Miami Dolphins. It appears that the future is now for Ryan Tannehill. He will be one of 4!! Rokie quarterbacks to start this season. He has the potential to be a very good quarterback in this league, but he is going to need help around him. I know the Dolphins haven't officially named him the guy, but if you take a quarterback with the #8 pick in the draft and haven't sniffed the postseason in years and aren't expected to make a run this year; you throw the rookie in there especially under the circumstance that he has the best grasp of the offense since he played in it in college. His problem will be there are no playmakers for him. Trading away Brandon Marshall and then not going out and finding an adequate replacement for his talent is just a bad move by the front office. When Davone Bess is your #1 WR, you have a severe playmaking problem. maybe some young guys might step up for a game or two, but this team will lack the offensive consistency to be a threat to anyone in this division. The running game is solid. Reggie Bush was a nice surprise last year as he seemed to finally learn how to run between the tackles, but that's not hard because the one thing Miami does have is a very good offensive line, especially as run blockers (Jake Long is a monster!). The defense will help keep them in games, the front 7 is very good and Cameron Wake can get after the quarterback and Dansby is a very underappriciated MIKE linebacker. The back 4, however, is inconsistent at best. They can make some plays one game and turn around the following week and get completely smoked. They are solid players, but just can't handle elite receiving corps on a consistent basis for this team to be successful over the course of a season. With Tannehill starting and the lack of playmaking ability, it will be a long season for the Dolphins fans as I feel they will finish the season 4-12.
NFC EAST
1. New York Giants. Unlike so many people out there, I am not going to disrespect the defending Super Bowl champions. Eli Manning has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is an elite quarterback in this league. Yes, sometimes he has an off game, but when the stakes are at the highest Eli finds a way to win the big game (unlike his older brother). Two Super Bowl championships says it all. The team posts 2 elite WR's in Hakeem Nicks and Victor "Salsaman" Cruz and they added nice depth drafting a burner in Rueben Randle and picking up Martellius Bennett to strengthen the Tight End position. The Giants will continue to try and run the ball (even though last year, they were one of the worst running teams in the league) behind a veteran offensive line because Coach Coughlin believes in ball control. The defense is very good. They got guys who can get after the quarterback, especially Jason Pierre-Paul, who is living up to his potential quicker than the Giants believed he would. Throw in Tuck and Umenyiora and they can cry havoc and let slip the gods of war upon any opposing quarterback. This allows the secondary to play aggressive and go for interceptions because there will be a lot of bad passes thrown because the quarterback is under so much pressure. They are one of the few teams who do not have to blitz to get maximum pressure on a quarterback. The Giants do have a difficult schedule, no denying that, part of the spoils of winning the Super Bowl. Road games in Atlanta, San Francisco, and Baltimore will challenge this team, but they are a team of veterans and leaders and will not shoot themselves in the leg, while trying to defend their crown. With a record of 10-6, they will win the NFC East once again.
2. Philadelphia Eagles. The dream deferred team will once again try and make a run at the playoffs. However, this team is not as good as people want it to be. They are the trendy pick to be this awesome team, but I don't see it. They have a hard schedule, for one, and they have problems on the offensive line, which is bad news for a fragile quarterback like Michael Vick. I don't forsee Vick playing all 16 games, which of course is not a very brave prediction, becuase once again he will take a lot of hits with the Giants and Cowboys twice on the schedule, as well as the Steelers, Ravens, Bengals and Lions on their schedule, that's half of the season against teams who can and will hit the quarterback. Shady McCoy has proven to be a great replacement for Brian Westbrook and will have a great season this year as well because he is a dual-threat. The question is whether or not DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin can make big plays for the Eagles like they did 2 seasons ago. The defensive unit is very good. If Cole and Babin continue their pass rushing dominance, then they will get a couple extra wins this year because they can force turnovers and put the team on a short field. The drafting of Fletcher Cox will give the Eagles a monster prescence in the interior line and the addition of DeMeco Ryans gives the Eagles a great MLB to run the defense and help shore up a weak run defense. The secondary can be very good as long as the Eagles let the corners play man-to-man defense instead of zone. Having two shutdown man-to-man guys is a huge benefit to this team and allows the defense to blitz more to add pressure that Cole and Babin can produce on their own. However, in the end the Eagles will be hampered by a quarterback injury at some point that will cost them the post-season. They will finish 9-7 but that will not be enough to earn the wild-card.
3. Dallas Cowboys. America's team is not what it once was and still has a ways to go to return to greatness. No one can argue that the team does not have the talent to be a dominant team, however, they just can't seem to piece it all together. Tony Romo will continue to put up great numbers, just not in the win column. He does have the benefit of a good, young running back in DeMarco Murray, who should be healthy from last year's season ending injury. The receiving corps is as good as anyone's, the question will be if Dez Bryant can keep his head on straight. Jason Witten did get injured in the preseason, but he will play in the rgular season, he's a tough guy and always produces. The O-Line is young and underestimated and will do a good job, but they may give up a few extra sacks because they will miss some assignments. The defensive front 7 is as good as any in the league and the linebacking corps could arguably be the best as long as Sean Lee continues his development from last year. No one has had more sacks in the past 5 years as DeMarcus Ware and he will continue to be a double-digit sack guy this year. The problem with this team is the secondary. They were bad last year (23rd in pass defense last year) and they dont have much to look forward to this year. Morris Claiborne will be a very good corner one day, but not this year, he will be limited because of the injury that will limit his role in the preseason and camp. Expect the Cowboys to get burned deep a lot this year and just won't be able to outscore everyone and finish the season with a 7-9 mark and once again miss the playoffs.
4. Washington Redskins. Let the RG3 era begin. RG3 has gotten a whole lot of hype and press off his Heisman Trophy winning season last year at Baylor and is expected to turn this franchise around and lead it back to glory. He may do so, but that will not happen this year. He is going to have growing pains and one will have to question if he will make it through the season, with the pass rushers he faces in his division as well as the Steelers, Ravens, and Bengals. The Redskins did do a good job getting talent around him signing Pierre Garcon and have an adequate running attack with Roy Helu and Evan Royster. Fred Davis and Chris Cooley are underappriciated TE's but both are coming back from injuries, so one has to wait and see their effectiveness. The Defensive side of the ball is good enough to keep the Redskins in ball games. They are solid players who won't make many mistakes and are led by London Fletcher who just keeps getting better as he gets older. He is playing at a high level because of his intelligence and film study, more than his athletic ability at this point, but his football IQ is high and his instincts are sound. He will captain the defense and put players like Orakpo and Kerrigan in position to make plays. However, the team has a rough schedule and an over-hyped quarterback who will take a beating this year, he may pull of some exciting plays and wins, which will make the future look bright, but just not this season. They will finish the season 5-11, but there will be hope for the future.
That's it for the predictions today, I'll be back tomorrow with the 2 strongest divisions in the NFL, the AFC and NFC North divisions will be under review.
AFC EAST
1. New England Patriots. Yes, I'm not going out on a limb here, with last season's Super Bowl loser, they are still the class of this division. Also, take into account they have somehow managed to have one of the easiest schedules this year (a meaningless stat to me, cause it is based off the previous season's record, teams change each year) and the Brady/Belichick gang should auto-pilot into another division crown. They did address some needs on Defense through the draft, although they are still a little suspect, especially in the secondary, but they do a good job disguising coverages and find ways to scheme a their opponents into making mistakes. The offense got a little better with the loss of OchoJohnson and replacing him with Brandon Llyod. Llyod is a versitale playmaker who will benefit from having Welker, Gronk and Hernandez gathering attention through the middle. Brady is Brady, he will rarely make mistakes to cost his team a game and will put his team in position to win each week. My prediction for New England is 13-3 and AFC East champs.
2. New York Jets. This team is either going to be very scary or a beautiful disaster. It all comes down to how Rex Ryan handles #15. If Rex keeps his faith in Mark Sanchez, then I feel the team will be good and compete but will hover around the .500 mark. If Rex goes to Timmy Tebow, then it's a whole new ball game. Love him or hate him, Tebow plays the game with an unbridled passion and is a true leader that his teammates will follow. Sanchez is heading for an ambush, with the way the Jets plan on utilizing Tebow early in the season, it's going to appear that Tebow is more successful, because he's going to be put in position to succeed. He's going to score touchdowns in the red zone. He's going to convert short yardage plays. I liken the scenario to the Willie Parker/Jerome Bettis situation the Steelers had in the mid 2000's. Willie did all the grunt work and Jerome got the glory for finishing drives down inside the 5. This will happen with Sanchez/Tebow and I believe Sanchez will eventually fold under the pressure and Rex will be forced to go to Tebow, who will have won over his teammates by then. If this happens before mid-season I believe the Jets will be a serious wild-card contender, because their defense is strong enough to keep them in every game and somehow, against all odds Tebow will find ways to win games. So, I will have 2 records here predicted for the Jets. If Sanchez is the starter all season, then the Jets will be 8-8. If Tebow takes over at some point, then the Jets will finish 10-6, but just miss the playoffs (more on the reason why on Tuesday).
3. Buffalo Bills. On paper, this is perhaps the most improved team in the division. Injuries last season, prevented the Bills from making a playoff run. The question this year is whether or not the offensive line will hold up. The interior is strong, but I have reservations about the 2 tackles, which will cause problems keeping Ryan Fitzpatrick upright and healthy all year. Fitzpatrick is a quality starter who makes the right choices the majority of the time and is a leader of the team. Fred Jackson, who is coming off a broken leg last season, is easily the most underappriciated back in the league. All he does is produce positive plays in the running and the passing game. the Bills have a bonus in C.J. Spiller, who showed he can carry the load when Jackson got hurt, so this is a nice 1-2 punch in the backfield. The big issue is Steve Johnson. He is a talented receiver, however, he has a tendency to want to be a diva, and cost his team more then help. If he can get his head on straight and just play football, then he could turn into a great young receiver, but that's a big if. The defense got better with the addition of Mario Williams and Mark Anderson; these are two guys who will put pressure on the quarterback. If they can consistentally put pressure on quarterbacks, then the young playmaking secondary will make a lot of big plays and they will win some games. However, there are still some holes on this team and I doubt they will be able to do better than 7-9.
4. Miami Dolphins. It appears that the future is now for Ryan Tannehill. He will be one of 4!! Rokie quarterbacks to start this season. He has the potential to be a very good quarterback in this league, but he is going to need help around him. I know the Dolphins haven't officially named him the guy, but if you take a quarterback with the #8 pick in the draft and haven't sniffed the postseason in years and aren't expected to make a run this year; you throw the rookie in there especially under the circumstance that he has the best grasp of the offense since he played in it in college. His problem will be there are no playmakers for him. Trading away Brandon Marshall and then not going out and finding an adequate replacement for his talent is just a bad move by the front office. When Davone Bess is your #1 WR, you have a severe playmaking problem. maybe some young guys might step up for a game or two, but this team will lack the offensive consistency to be a threat to anyone in this division. The running game is solid. Reggie Bush was a nice surprise last year as he seemed to finally learn how to run between the tackles, but that's not hard because the one thing Miami does have is a very good offensive line, especially as run blockers (Jake Long is a monster!). The defense will help keep them in games, the front 7 is very good and Cameron Wake can get after the quarterback and Dansby is a very underappriciated MIKE linebacker. The back 4, however, is inconsistent at best. They can make some plays one game and turn around the following week and get completely smoked. They are solid players, but just can't handle elite receiving corps on a consistent basis for this team to be successful over the course of a season. With Tannehill starting and the lack of playmaking ability, it will be a long season for the Dolphins fans as I feel they will finish the season 4-12.
NFC EAST
1. New York Giants. Unlike so many people out there, I am not going to disrespect the defending Super Bowl champions. Eli Manning has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is an elite quarterback in this league. Yes, sometimes he has an off game, but when the stakes are at the highest Eli finds a way to win the big game (unlike his older brother). Two Super Bowl championships says it all. The team posts 2 elite WR's in Hakeem Nicks and Victor "Salsaman" Cruz and they added nice depth drafting a burner in Rueben Randle and picking up Martellius Bennett to strengthen the Tight End position. The Giants will continue to try and run the ball (even though last year, they were one of the worst running teams in the league) behind a veteran offensive line because Coach Coughlin believes in ball control. The defense is very good. They got guys who can get after the quarterback, especially Jason Pierre-Paul, who is living up to his potential quicker than the Giants believed he would. Throw in Tuck and Umenyiora and they can cry havoc and let slip the gods of war upon any opposing quarterback. This allows the secondary to play aggressive and go for interceptions because there will be a lot of bad passes thrown because the quarterback is under so much pressure. They are one of the few teams who do not have to blitz to get maximum pressure on a quarterback. The Giants do have a difficult schedule, no denying that, part of the spoils of winning the Super Bowl. Road games in Atlanta, San Francisco, and Baltimore will challenge this team, but they are a team of veterans and leaders and will not shoot themselves in the leg, while trying to defend their crown. With a record of 10-6, they will win the NFC East once again.
2. Philadelphia Eagles. The dream deferred team will once again try and make a run at the playoffs. However, this team is not as good as people want it to be. They are the trendy pick to be this awesome team, but I don't see it. They have a hard schedule, for one, and they have problems on the offensive line, which is bad news for a fragile quarterback like Michael Vick. I don't forsee Vick playing all 16 games, which of course is not a very brave prediction, becuase once again he will take a lot of hits with the Giants and Cowboys twice on the schedule, as well as the Steelers, Ravens, Bengals and Lions on their schedule, that's half of the season against teams who can and will hit the quarterback. Shady McCoy has proven to be a great replacement for Brian Westbrook and will have a great season this year as well because he is a dual-threat. The question is whether or not DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin can make big plays for the Eagles like they did 2 seasons ago. The defensive unit is very good. If Cole and Babin continue their pass rushing dominance, then they will get a couple extra wins this year because they can force turnovers and put the team on a short field. The drafting of Fletcher Cox will give the Eagles a monster prescence in the interior line and the addition of DeMeco Ryans gives the Eagles a great MLB to run the defense and help shore up a weak run defense. The secondary can be very good as long as the Eagles let the corners play man-to-man defense instead of zone. Having two shutdown man-to-man guys is a huge benefit to this team and allows the defense to blitz more to add pressure that Cole and Babin can produce on their own. However, in the end the Eagles will be hampered by a quarterback injury at some point that will cost them the post-season. They will finish 9-7 but that will not be enough to earn the wild-card.
3. Dallas Cowboys. America's team is not what it once was and still has a ways to go to return to greatness. No one can argue that the team does not have the talent to be a dominant team, however, they just can't seem to piece it all together. Tony Romo will continue to put up great numbers, just not in the win column. He does have the benefit of a good, young running back in DeMarco Murray, who should be healthy from last year's season ending injury. The receiving corps is as good as anyone's, the question will be if Dez Bryant can keep his head on straight. Jason Witten did get injured in the preseason, but he will play in the rgular season, he's a tough guy and always produces. The O-Line is young and underestimated and will do a good job, but they may give up a few extra sacks because they will miss some assignments. The defensive front 7 is as good as any in the league and the linebacking corps could arguably be the best as long as Sean Lee continues his development from last year. No one has had more sacks in the past 5 years as DeMarcus Ware and he will continue to be a double-digit sack guy this year. The problem with this team is the secondary. They were bad last year (23rd in pass defense last year) and they dont have much to look forward to this year. Morris Claiborne will be a very good corner one day, but not this year, he will be limited because of the injury that will limit his role in the preseason and camp. Expect the Cowboys to get burned deep a lot this year and just won't be able to outscore everyone and finish the season with a 7-9 mark and once again miss the playoffs.
4. Washington Redskins. Let the RG3 era begin. RG3 has gotten a whole lot of hype and press off his Heisman Trophy winning season last year at Baylor and is expected to turn this franchise around and lead it back to glory. He may do so, but that will not happen this year. He is going to have growing pains and one will have to question if he will make it through the season, with the pass rushers he faces in his division as well as the Steelers, Ravens, and Bengals. The Redskins did do a good job getting talent around him signing Pierre Garcon and have an adequate running attack with Roy Helu and Evan Royster. Fred Davis and Chris Cooley are underappriciated TE's but both are coming back from injuries, so one has to wait and see their effectiveness. The Defensive side of the ball is good enough to keep the Redskins in ball games. They are solid players who won't make many mistakes and are led by London Fletcher who just keeps getting better as he gets older. He is playing at a high level because of his intelligence and film study, more than his athletic ability at this point, but his football IQ is high and his instincts are sound. He will captain the defense and put players like Orakpo and Kerrigan in position to make plays. However, the team has a rough schedule and an over-hyped quarterback who will take a beating this year, he may pull of some exciting plays and wins, which will make the future look bright, but just not this season. They will finish the season 5-11, but there will be hope for the future.
That's it for the predictions today, I'll be back tomorrow with the 2 strongest divisions in the NFL, the AFC and NFC North divisions will be under review.
Friday, August 17, 2012
Fantasy Football Do's and Don'ts.
Ok, here comes my first real post I'm going to lay down some guidlines I believe will help you have a successful fantasy football draft and season. As a long time player of fantasy leagues, I have done everything right and also have done everything that you can possibly do wrong, but the key is learning from your mistakes (this applies to life as well).
Let's start off with the things that you should do before every fantasy football season starts.
1. The first thing you need to do to help yourself in your leagues is carefully examine the scoring structure of your league. Most leagues that play for money have custom rules and you have to understand that carefully, not draft thinking you are playing this league under typical default scoring leagues. Always make sure you check and see if your league is Point Per Reception, aka PPR, this makes your draft system change. For example, the classic view is take a running back first, and that is normally sound advice, but in a PPR league you want to grab an elite running back who catches a lot of passes out of the backfield. This elevates the value of running backs such as Shady McCoy and Ray Rice, because they catch a lot of balls. I would argue that in a PPR league that those two players should be valued over say an Adrian Peterson. Also, in a PPR league your wide receivers have a lot of value, so now one would argue taking an elite receiver in the first round, because the point per catch is going to average out to them worth that pick. Don't underestimate Tight Ends who catch a lot of passes, a guy like Jason Witten has a lot of value in PPR leagues, because he is his Quarterback's favorite and reliable target.
2. Sign up for some free, casual leagues before you do your money leagues. I know this sounds like common knowledge and can be time consuming, but you gain a lot of knowledge by doing this. This allows you to have a real draft feel and you can get an idea where players are coming off the board, which will only help your draft strategy. I feel that you should do at least 3 of these, that way you can come up with a good average. Amazingly, in 10 team leagues so far I've been able to draft Matt Ryan in the 9th round!! That's excellent knowledge to gain if you do miss out on or risk passing on the big 5 QB's (Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Stafford, and Newton). matt Ryan's numbers are not going to be far off those guys and while your opponents may have snagged the better QB, you can use this time to draft elite WR's and RB's and give yourself an advantage in those areas, while waiting for a very good QB later.
3. Examine the players coming back from injury from the previous season. It's always risky taking a player who is returning from a season-ending injury, but it can be a great strategy for you to ge tthe most value. Do the research, watch the pre-season games and see how these players are doing. Everyone is going to be focused this year on Peyton Manning and some people may jump and take him early and no one would argue with you if you did, however, i am more interested in a guy like Matt Schaub. Schaub is always a top-notch fantasy QB, but he seems to be a forgotten guy this year and you may be able to steal a top 10 QB very late, i've seen him last into the 12th round. If you see his name in the 12th round still on the board, pull the trigger and take him, do not hesitate.
4. Bench players!! I believe in filling out your roster fully, except for the kicker, before taking bench players. Exception being it's the 5th or 6th round and a guy who you feel should've been gone in the 2nd or 3rd round is still there, then take a high backup, at the very worst you can trade one at a later time. Last year, in a lot of my leagues I had both Philip Rivers and Matt Stafford, well when Stafford when bat-shit crazy, Rivers became expendable and I got great trade value. However, drafting 2 top guys at their position when you can only play one can lead to indesicion on your part and you may pass on a top guy who will be in your lineup all the time. So, for the most part I stick to the early idea of filling out your starters first. Now, to the big pet peeve in drafting your bench, you are drafting your bench players for one primary reason a quality player to fill out the bye weeks. Don't be stupid and draft a bench player with the same bye week as the starter, that's just assinine. This leads into topic 5.
5. Bye weeks!! There are different perspectives to the bye weeks. Some people like to spread them out, where some people will sacrifice one week and have a majority of their team with the same bye week and accept defeat that week for the stronger team the majority of weeks. By doing the latter, you can catch more teams in their weakness, while you still believe you are strong. I like the latter strategy, because I like to pair up my QB with his primary target (get double the value), knowing that on that given bye week, my team will be weaker than normal, but I have an advantage for the majority of weeks. You don't have to win every week to make the playoffs, so getting killed one week is not a big concern.
6. Do not overvalue rookies!! I know that there is a desire to pull the one-up on your league and be able to brag about grabbing the top rookie. However, soem rookies come out the gate strong and may help you win early, almost all the time the rookies hit the so-called rookie wall and you know when that happens around week 12. So, when the playoffs start, typically around week 13, one of you dominant guys for the early part is not going to be so dominant when you need him the most. Also, most rookies are able to be grabbed in the waiver wire, most people got Cam Newton last year after week 1!!!
7. Understand matchups!! I find it funny that a certain fantasy site has Trent Richardson ranked #11 overall in the draft board. Now, he may become a great player, but he has 2 big knocks on him, 1. he is a rookie and 2. he plays the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals twice!! That's 6 games against Top 5 defenses!! Almost half the season is against teams he will not be projected to do well against and probably won't, seems like a dumb pick to me.
8. Trades!! Simply put, never trade away a starter, unless you are getting a better one or you have an equal backup and are gaining a starter in another position. Don't waste your time trading for players that will be on your bench, you can easily get someone off waivers and not weaken your team.
9. Handcuffs!! Depending on the roster structure, if you have a flex for a RB and you get a guy who does share carries or is known for missing a few games every year and the team has a good backup, draft the starter's backup. It is a smart strategy, i.e. if you have Arian Foster or Matt Forte, then pick up Ben Tate and Michael Bush respectively. It will only benefit you.
10. Dance with who brung you!! If you do make the playoffs, first off congratulations, and secondly keep your lineup intact. Don't play the matchup game in the post-season, this team was good enough to get you to the dance, then it's good enough to make you the champion. Second-guessing will only lead to mistakes and in the playoffs one mistake can cost you the money and if you do lose, you can at least take solace in the fact that you put your best squad out there, you just got beat. It's much worse to beat yourself, by taking out one of your top guns cause you think you have a better matchup and then it doesn't pan out and then you are kicking yourself in the ass.
Well, that's all I got for this post. These are my top 10 keys for success in fantasy football. As always, feel free to disagree, but remember you are always free to get the funk out!!!
Let's start off with the things that you should do before every fantasy football season starts.
1. The first thing you need to do to help yourself in your leagues is carefully examine the scoring structure of your league. Most leagues that play for money have custom rules and you have to understand that carefully, not draft thinking you are playing this league under typical default scoring leagues. Always make sure you check and see if your league is Point Per Reception, aka PPR, this makes your draft system change. For example, the classic view is take a running back first, and that is normally sound advice, but in a PPR league you want to grab an elite running back who catches a lot of passes out of the backfield. This elevates the value of running backs such as Shady McCoy and Ray Rice, because they catch a lot of balls. I would argue that in a PPR league that those two players should be valued over say an Adrian Peterson. Also, in a PPR league your wide receivers have a lot of value, so now one would argue taking an elite receiver in the first round, because the point per catch is going to average out to them worth that pick. Don't underestimate Tight Ends who catch a lot of passes, a guy like Jason Witten has a lot of value in PPR leagues, because he is his Quarterback's favorite and reliable target.
2. Sign up for some free, casual leagues before you do your money leagues. I know this sounds like common knowledge and can be time consuming, but you gain a lot of knowledge by doing this. This allows you to have a real draft feel and you can get an idea where players are coming off the board, which will only help your draft strategy. I feel that you should do at least 3 of these, that way you can come up with a good average. Amazingly, in 10 team leagues so far I've been able to draft Matt Ryan in the 9th round!! That's excellent knowledge to gain if you do miss out on or risk passing on the big 5 QB's (Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Stafford, and Newton). matt Ryan's numbers are not going to be far off those guys and while your opponents may have snagged the better QB, you can use this time to draft elite WR's and RB's and give yourself an advantage in those areas, while waiting for a very good QB later.
3. Examine the players coming back from injury from the previous season. It's always risky taking a player who is returning from a season-ending injury, but it can be a great strategy for you to ge tthe most value. Do the research, watch the pre-season games and see how these players are doing. Everyone is going to be focused this year on Peyton Manning and some people may jump and take him early and no one would argue with you if you did, however, i am more interested in a guy like Matt Schaub. Schaub is always a top-notch fantasy QB, but he seems to be a forgotten guy this year and you may be able to steal a top 10 QB very late, i've seen him last into the 12th round. If you see his name in the 12th round still on the board, pull the trigger and take him, do not hesitate.
4. Bench players!! I believe in filling out your roster fully, except for the kicker, before taking bench players. Exception being it's the 5th or 6th round and a guy who you feel should've been gone in the 2nd or 3rd round is still there, then take a high backup, at the very worst you can trade one at a later time. Last year, in a lot of my leagues I had both Philip Rivers and Matt Stafford, well when Stafford when bat-shit crazy, Rivers became expendable and I got great trade value. However, drafting 2 top guys at their position when you can only play one can lead to indesicion on your part and you may pass on a top guy who will be in your lineup all the time. So, for the most part I stick to the early idea of filling out your starters first. Now, to the big pet peeve in drafting your bench, you are drafting your bench players for one primary reason a quality player to fill out the bye weeks. Don't be stupid and draft a bench player with the same bye week as the starter, that's just assinine. This leads into topic 5.
5. Bye weeks!! There are different perspectives to the bye weeks. Some people like to spread them out, where some people will sacrifice one week and have a majority of their team with the same bye week and accept defeat that week for the stronger team the majority of weeks. By doing the latter, you can catch more teams in their weakness, while you still believe you are strong. I like the latter strategy, because I like to pair up my QB with his primary target (get double the value), knowing that on that given bye week, my team will be weaker than normal, but I have an advantage for the majority of weeks. You don't have to win every week to make the playoffs, so getting killed one week is not a big concern.
6. Do not overvalue rookies!! I know that there is a desire to pull the one-up on your league and be able to brag about grabbing the top rookie. However, soem rookies come out the gate strong and may help you win early, almost all the time the rookies hit the so-called rookie wall and you know when that happens around week 12. So, when the playoffs start, typically around week 13, one of you dominant guys for the early part is not going to be so dominant when you need him the most. Also, most rookies are able to be grabbed in the waiver wire, most people got Cam Newton last year after week 1!!!
7. Understand matchups!! I find it funny that a certain fantasy site has Trent Richardson ranked #11 overall in the draft board. Now, he may become a great player, but he has 2 big knocks on him, 1. he is a rookie and 2. he plays the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals twice!! That's 6 games against Top 5 defenses!! Almost half the season is against teams he will not be projected to do well against and probably won't, seems like a dumb pick to me.
8. Trades!! Simply put, never trade away a starter, unless you are getting a better one or you have an equal backup and are gaining a starter in another position. Don't waste your time trading for players that will be on your bench, you can easily get someone off waivers and not weaken your team.
9. Handcuffs!! Depending on the roster structure, if you have a flex for a RB and you get a guy who does share carries or is known for missing a few games every year and the team has a good backup, draft the starter's backup. It is a smart strategy, i.e. if you have Arian Foster or Matt Forte, then pick up Ben Tate and Michael Bush respectively. It will only benefit you.
10. Dance with who brung you!! If you do make the playoffs, first off congratulations, and secondly keep your lineup intact. Don't play the matchup game in the post-season, this team was good enough to get you to the dance, then it's good enough to make you the champion. Second-guessing will only lead to mistakes and in the playoffs one mistake can cost you the money and if you do lose, you can at least take solace in the fact that you put your best squad out there, you just got beat. It's much worse to beat yourself, by taking out one of your top guns cause you think you have a better matchup and then it doesn't pan out and then you are kicking yourself in the ass.
Well, that's all I got for this post. These are my top 10 keys for success in fantasy football. As always, feel free to disagree, but remember you are always free to get the funk out!!!
Welcome to the Funk Zone
Greetings and salutations, my name is Paul Anderson and for those of you will be brave enough to enter what I will call the Funk Zone. In here, I will post my views, opinions, and I know will eventually and ultimately turn into some rants. I will post a lot about my favorite sport, which is the NFL, but I will not shy away from other areas of cultural topics. I know the hot, cool trend is to do this now with video blogs, however, I am a bit more old-fashioned and still believe in the written word, which will be a theme through some of my blogs of old school vs. new school. Anyway, a little about me, I grew up in Erie, PA and graduated from Gannon University with a degree in English in 2001. I had attempted to receive a master's degree in Sociology, but as life sometimes will have it, you don't always finish your plan, because I believe life in sometimes a cruel and extremely long and roundablout way has a different plan set in store for you. Enough of the greeting, I hope this site will attract a lot of readers and especially a lot of comments, the best way to expand one's knowledge is to have an intellectual discourse about a particular subject, and if you dare post a comment I will do my best to respond to it in a timely fashion. You may agree with me, you may disagree completely with me, but that's your freedom to do so, and I will always support a person's opinion, even if I completely disagree with it, but again you can like it, you can hate it, that's your choice and I don't give a funk.
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